In 2002, Ruy Teixeira and John Judis famously envisioned an “emerging Democratic majority” that was destined to gain control of the country. This coalition was to usher in an era of electoral dominance for Democrats, composed primarily of college-educated professionals, women, and minorities.
Last November, the pair co-authored a postmortem titled, “The Receding Democratic Majority,” as the current electoral landscape seems to have rendered their grand forecast a fantasy. Not only did the model require an estimated 40 percent retention rate of the white working class, but many of the minorities so heavily courted by left-wing activists have proven to be far more independent than expected at the ballot box.
Recent polling further underscores this trend. Among Arab-American voters, an October Arab News/YouGov poll showed 45 percent claiming they are most likely voting for Donald Trump come November, with 43 percent going for Kamala Harris.
Young black men are drifting further toward Trump than any Republican since Richard Nixon. More than one in four black men under the age of 50 say they support the former president, according to a recent poll conducted by the NAACP. Forty-nine percent still back Harris, but Trump is set to outperform all Republican candidates in recent memory among this demographic.
Or take union members. In September, rank-and-file Teamsters voted overwhelmingly to endorse Trump over Harris, 59.6 percent to 34 percent. For the first time in nearly 30 years, the labor juggernaut refused to officially endorse either party this time around — an implicit win for Donald Trump.
Ronald Reagan famously quipped that Hispanics are Republicans but just don’t know it yet. He may have been on to something. A recent Fox News poll shows Trump within five points of Harris with Hispanics (52 percent to 47 percent). This comes less than 20 years after Barack Obama carried the Hispanic vote by upwards of 30 points and just one election cycle after Joe Biden captured 63 percent support in 2020.
The Left’s intersectional metanarrative that binds all victim groups together seems to be cracking. Progressives forgot that these are individuals, too. For many, their race is incidental — not instrumental — to their political agenda. They don’t tend to vote as simply black men or Hispanic women — they vote as parents, nurses, and small-business owners.
Let’s hope electoral trends will redirect politicians’ efforts to actually delivering on sound policy rather than continuing to pander to select affinity groups.