The political betting markets today have the horse race for who will be Donald Trump’s vice-presidential running mate as a close one between North Dakota governor Doug Burgum and Ohio senator J. D. Vance.
But my sources tell me there is a surprise entry coming up quickly on the side — Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin.
The front-runners are still very much in the mix, but their prospects have faded in recent days.
Governor Burgum impressed Donald Trump during his campaign, has a command of energy issues, and has governing experience. But at age 67, some Trump advisers feel the ticket (given that Trump is 78) would look “too senior” to appeal to young voters. Trump is also not as convinced he wants a vice president along the Dick Cheney model — a senior figure who can be loyal to him because he may not seek election as president in his own right in the future.
The chances that Trump will pick Vance, the 39-year-old freshman senator from Ohio have cooled. Trump will carry Ohio with or without Vance’s presence the ticket, and his persuasive powers in the neighboring swing states of Pennsylvania and Michigan are unknown and untested.
Secondly, Vance is clearly not yet on the new post-shooting Trump plan to appeal for unity and common ground at the Milwaukee convention and beyond. On Saturday night, immediately after Trump was shot, he sent out a tweet stating “that rhetoric (from the Biden campaign) led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.” A Trump campaign adviser told me, “There’s no way that if J. D. Vance had been at the finish line for VP on Saturday night that he would have sent out that tweet. There would have been a lot more consultation before that was posted.”
Glenn Youngkin, who was long touted as a 2024 presidential candidate by those seeking an alternative to Trump, wound up staying out of the race, earning Trump’s respect. While a strong conservative, Youngkin is a reassuring figure to major Republican donor groups such as corporate CEOs as well as suburban women (who powered his upset victory over former Democratic governor Terry McAuliffe in 2021).
The presidential map has expanded in the last three weeks with President Biden’s face-plant performance in the June 27 debate and the Trump shooting. Picking Youngkin would make the GOP ticket instantly competitive in a state that hasn’t voted Republican for president in 20 years and whose 13 electoral votes would almost balance out a loss in Michigan, with 15 electoral votes. The needle Joe Biden would have to thread to win without Virginia would be a very narrow one indeed.
Trump certainly is aware of Youngkin’s strengths. At his first rally after debating Biden last month in Chesapeake, Va., Trump lavished praise on Youngkin, with Virginia Public Radio’s headline reporting that “Trump Gushes About Youngkin.”
“I’m honored to be here with your governor,” Trump told the crowd. “He’s got common sense, he’s got great policy. He’s got the policy that made America great.”
As an added bonus, should a Trump-Youngkin ticket win in November, the governorship of Virginia would pass to Lt. Governor Winsome Sears, a 60-year-old African-American superstar in the Republican Party. She would then be able to seek election to the governorship in her own right in November 2025 as an incumbent.
Everyone knows Donald Trump loves surprises. He shocked the political world by picking Mike Pence to be on his ticket in 2016 because he wanted someone with governing experience who would serve as a contrast to his own personality. Should he pick Glenn Youngkin, he would get that as well as someone with a successful 25-year career with the Carlyle Group, a private-equity firm with $217 billion in assets.
That’s a career that Trump can identify with and respect.