Several news stories and analyses this week have suggested that Michael Steele is able to remain RNC chairman primarily because of his race. (See this Eugene Robinson op-ed for example.) There’s no question that Steele’s race is making people who would otherwise want him gone refrain from saying so; when I wrote about Steele a few weeks ago I certainly spoke to some people who raised the issue. But I don’t actually think it’s the main factor that’s helping him.
What is keeping Steele in office, first, is the procedural difficulty of ousting him. It takes a two-thirds vote of the commiteemen. Second, the absence of a Republican president makes it harder to reach consensus and force action. Third, there’s no alternative candidate who has the support of all of Steele’s critics and some of his fans. Fifth, that candidate would have to go to enormous lengths to get the chairmanship for a short period of time: The Republican presidential nominee will want his own chairman starting in spring 2012.
Sixth, the RNC is getting more money these days from small donors and less from big donors. The conventional interpretation of this trend is that small donations are up because there’s a rising conservative tide among the populace, while the established party moneymen are boycotting Steele. Whatever the explanation, the trend reduces the influence of congressional Republicans on the RNC. It’s not as though they can threaten to stop schmoozing with big donors and hurt the RNC if they don’t get their way.
Astute readers will notice that my list skipped the fourth factor helping Steele. That’s where I’d put his race in my rough ranking.