The key to the outcome of the two major elections in Kansas — those of Pat Roberts and Sam Brownback — will be the behavior of the state’s moderate Republicans. Events this year didn’t unfold in the GOP’s favor because Roberts, who is running for his fourth term, alienated conservatives, who think he’s been in Washington too long and is a tool of the establishment, while Brownback alienated Republican moderates in the state legislature after challenging and defeating many of them in the 2012 elections. Andrew notes below that Republicans in Kansas are pleased with Roberts’s performance thus far.
Whether the moderates show up to the polls, whether they overcome their antipathy toward Brownback, or whether they’re so fed up with the GOP that they vote for Orman will, most likely, ultimately decide the fate of both candidates. These moderates, by the way, may cast votes against Brownback and for Roberts.