How Democrats View the Stakes of Tonight’s Debate

In a few hours, millions of Americans will watch in real time as Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump meet for the first time tonight on the debate stage in Philadelphia. The 9 p.m. debate will be hosted by ABC News and will have the same rules as CNN’s Biden versus Trump matchup in June — no live audience and muted mics when candidates do not have the floor.

National Review caught up with several Democratic lawmakers on Capitol Hill this afternoon to pick their brains about the stakes of tonight’s event and what Harris needs to do to have a successful night. Here are some takeaways.

Yes, tonight matters!

Since becoming the Democratic Party’s new nominee in late July, Harris has done just one sit-down interview with a major media network. Tonight’s debate is the only presidential debate on the calendar, meaning Democrats are acutely aware of the reality that reporters and voters will be scrutinizing her every sentence — without help from prewritten notes or a teleprompter.

“The stakes are really high for Vice President Harris because it’s one of the first opportunities to show the world who she is in an unscripted moment,” says Representative Adam Smith (D., Wash.), one of the House Democrats who called on Biden to step aside after the June debate. He insists he’s “not nervous” about her performance tonight, even as he said he “[hopes] it goes well” (and held up crossed fingers for added emphasis). How does she win? “She needs to basically show that she is competent, sensible, and can clearly communicate a message — that’s it.”

The “under-appreciated truth” with debates like these is that presentation will probably matter more than policy, says Representative Dean Phillips (D. Minn.).

Voters will be watching “how she stands up to someone who has a propensity to be rude and difficult and somewhat of a bully,” says Phillips, who briefly challenged Biden for the Democratic presidential nomination. “Even though people are focused on policy, I think it’s going to be more about presentation.”

A big opportunity to woo swing voters

After effectively kicking Biden to the curb earlier this summer, Democrats are now feeling genuinely confident that their base is enthusiastic about turning out to vote for their new nominee. In Representative Mike Quigley’s (D., Ill.) estimation, Harris has had three major tasks since ascending to the top of the ticket: excite the base, unite the party, and reverse the polls.

“She’s three for three,” says Quigley, another House Democrat who called on Biden to resign after his catastrophic debate performance. “Tonight’s all about engaging the undecideds and the disgruntled Republicans. If she can succeed at that, it’s a good night.”

Fingers crossed for an unhinged Trump

Democrats are hoping that the GOP nominee’s meandering speaking style and insult-driven debate tactics will make Harris look coolheaded onstage by comparison. Excessive ad hominem attacks from Trump on Harris will likely play to her advantage, they predict.

“I think he will avoid answering questions; I think he will continue to talk when they mute the microphones, because that is his history,” says Representative Joyce Beatty (D., Ohio). “And I think he will say things that are divisive and discriminatory and weird.”

As Senator Michael Bennet (D., Colo.) put it this afternoon, “she’s going to be able to present a record I think is positive for the future, and I think that will contrast well with President Trump’s expressions of grievance.”

Frustration with how the media treats Trump

There’s a genuine sense among congressional Democrats that after nearly a decade of covering Trump, national political reporters have become numb to his antics and are now setting lower standards for his candidacy than Harris’s.

This frustration is making its way into Democrats’ pre-debate expectations-setting game. “When Trump says stupid sh**, he gets a pass. If she gets a fact or a figure wrong, all of a sudden it’s a big story,” says Representative Jim McGovern (D., Mass.). “The bar is so low for him.”

“I’m looking at the stuff he posts on his social media, and the stuff he says every day. It’s insane, and yet it’s treated as not unusual,” he adds. “As a member of Congress, if I said a tenth of what he says, the editorial boards of the Boston Globe and the Worcester Telegram would be telling me I need to resign.”

But moral of the story, she’d better do well onstage tonight, he says. “She needs to win,” McGovern adds. “That’s the bottom line. I don’t even know what winning means, because it’s an expectations game.”