One reason I’ve been so bullish on Trump’s chances all year is that he had sizeable leads on the economy, inflation, and the border, the biggest issues of the election. But those leads have diminished.
The Cook Political Report swing-state poll found:
As he did in August, Trump holds a five-point lead on the question on who voters trust to “deal with the economy” (50-45%). But, on the specific issue of “getting inflation under control,” Trump’s six-point lead from August has evaporated. In August, Trump led Harris on inflation and cost of living 48% to 42%. Today, voters are evenly divided (47%) on who they trust more to handle an issue that 60% of swing state voters say is the aspect of the economy that “concerns them the most.” . . .
Trump has his largest lead over Harris, 51% to 42% on the issue of border and immigration. However, that is a five-point drop from his 53% to 39% lead over Harris in August. This drop comes even as the Trump campaign and its allies have run attack ads that put the blame for the surge of migrants at the southern border, and the crimes some of them have committed, at Harris’ feet.
This trend is worth keeping an eye on. Meanwhile, the latest national polls from Emerson and NPR have Harris leading by just one point and two points respectively, which, all things being equal, probably wouldn’t be enough for her to win.