Hamas Chief Probably Alive, Hezbollah Chief Probably Not, as Israel Deliberates over Retaliation against Iran

Although it’s not a sure thing, U.S. intelligence sources believe Yahya Sinwar is still alive and running Hamas while in hiding in the tunnels under the Gaza Strip — the maze that the terrorist organization built by syphoning off international aid for Palestinians, and in which it is believed to be holding hostages abducted a year ago.

There has been no proof of life for many weeks. Yet, Sinwar has been known to go dark for long stretches of time. He is said to communicate through a small group of trusted couriers, fearful of using electronic devices that could be tracked (or, as we’ve recently seen, detonated).

The unnamed intelligence sources tell the New York Times that Sinwar has become “fatalistic”: He is convinced he will not survive the ongoing fighting that he provoked by directing Hamas’s October 7 atrocities. To their dismay, Biden-Harris officials are said to believe he is hardened in his recalcitrance, making it unlikely he would ever cooperate in a truce that would end the fighting in exchange for the release of hostages — a deal Hamas has repeatedly rejected in its various iterations.

Sinwar evidently hoped that Iran and Hezbollah would instigate a much wider war, forcing Israel to divert combat forces from Gaza to other battlefronts, especially the Lebanese border. Though the wider war has happened — albeit not to the extent Sinwar was anticipating, at least not yet — it has not impeded the IDF’s capacity to press the fight (Israel’s main impediment on that score has been the Biden-Harris administration). Sinwar has always been a ruthless jihadist, but his resolve against ceasefire arrangements ardently pushed by Biden and Harris is said to have stiffened after Hamas’s previous emir, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran in late July — an operation Israel has not claimed credit for, though there is little doubt about the matter.

As I noted earlier this week, the IDF has confirmed that it eliminated Sinwar’s right-hand man, Rawhi Mushtaha. That apparently happened many weeks ago, though it was only announced in the last few days.

As for the wider war, the reign of Hashem Safieddine as Hezbollah’s new emir appears to have been a short one. He replaced Hassan Nasrallah, the Iran-backed terrorist organization’s leader for over 30 years, after Nasrallah was killed, along with other Hezbollah leaders, about a week ago — on September 27. Now the IDF appears to have eliminated him in a bunker bombing similar to the one that took out his predecessor.

The Jerusalem Post reports that a Saudi news organization (al Hadath) has reported that Safieddine was killed. Contact with him has been lost since the strike on Friday, and a Lebanese security source told Sky News Arabia that there was “almost zero” chance that anyone could have survived the attack. But the Jerusalem Post has not yet been able to confirm that Safieddine has perished.

The IDF is proceeding apace with the ground operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon that began this week — it is pounding targets, even as nine Israeli soldiers have been killed. Hezbollah continues to fire rockets (240 earlier this week, at least 30 in the last day), despite Israel’s having eliminated an estimated half of its arsenal and launching capabilities. So far, this rocket fire has resulted in no casualties and little damage.

On another front, a drone strike launched from Iraq by Iran-backed jihadists killed two Israeli soldiers and wounded 24 others on Thursday.

Meantime, after months of dawdling and pinprick attacks on the Houthis — the Iran-backed Ansar Allah jihadists in Yemen who, in solidarity with Hamas, have conducted a year-long campaign against shipping in the Red Sea — American and British forces finally struck Houthi bases and missile systems on Friday. There are about 43,000 U.S. military personnel deployed in the region, and they have been targeted in numerous Houthi attacks — U.S. Naval sources have described the situation as “the most intense running sea battle the Navy has faced since World War II.”

Friday’s attacks against 15 Houthi strongholds come on the heels of last Sunday’s Israeli bombings of power stations and a seaport in Yemen — retaliation for Iran-supplied missiles that the Houthis have fired at Israel (to little effect, at least to this point).

Israel, then, is fighting Iran, its proxies, and its allied jihadist groups on seven fronts: Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and — to a thus-far-limited extent — Iran itself.

The IDF says it is planning a significant response to the approximately 200 ballistic missiles Iran fired at Israel earlier this week, following the attacks on Hezbollah that led to Nasrallah’s demise. Despite paying lip service to Israel’s right to respond, the Biden-Harris administration is pleading with Israel to exercise restraint, to resist attacks on Iranian oil fields, and in particular to avoid strikes against Iran’s nuclear sites. Biden said he would not support such strikes, notwithstanding his prior claims that he would not tolerate Tehran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons. Former president Trump, by contrast, is urging Israel to target Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Israel reportedly has given no assurances to the Biden-Harris administration that targeting nuclear facilities in Iran is off the table.