GOP Representative Matt Rosendale Says ‘Outpouring of Support’ in Montana ‘Weighing Heavily’ on 2024 Senate Calculus

GOP representative Matt Rosendale of Montana continues to tease a rerun against three-term Democratic senator Jon Tester in 2024, telling National Review in a brief interview on Tuesday afternoon outside the U.S. Capitol that he has yet to make a final decision on the matter but that the “outpouring of support” he’s receiving among base voters is “weighing heavily” on his decision-making.

“I traveled around the state this past weekend, which I do each weekend when I get back, and had Matt Gaetz there with me,” Rosendale said, referring to his House GOP colleague from Florida, the architect of former speaker Kevin McCarthy’s October ouster. “The outpouring of support that we received at each one of the venues — literally overbooked at every location — was certainly very encouraging.”

Tester’s seat is a top pickup opportunity this cycle for Senate Republicans, some of whom worry that Rosendale — who lost to Tester by 3.5 points in 2018 — would hurt the party’s chances of flipping the red-leaning battleground that former president Donald Trump had carried by 16 points in 2020.

Senate Republicans’ campaign chief, Steve Daines of Montana, has sought to avoid an expensive and contentious GOP primary in his home state by throwing his support behind businessman and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy. (The Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC aligned with Democratic Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, is already spending millions attacking Sheehy in ads, a sign that Democrats view him as a threat to Tester in the general election should he win the GOP nomination.)

Rosendale tells NR that he has not spoken recently about his prospective Senate run with either the National Republican Senatorial Committee or the Club for Growth, whose political arm ran ads on his behalf in 2018 but has signaled an openness to supporting Sheehy in 2024.

“What I’m concerned about is what’s in the best interest of the State of Montana and what’s in the best interest of the nation,” Rosendale said. “And I want to serve where I can be the most effective, and the people across Montana are going to make that decision, not Mitch McConnell.”

Complicating matters for Rosendale is his evolving relationship with the former president. Back in October, Rosendale gave a curious answer to a local-radio host about whether he’d support Trump in 2024, suggesting that his endorsement of the former president might “hurt” him in the presidential primary. “I can’t gauge what my endorsement would help or hurt anyone,” he said. “I think President Trump is gonna do fine whether he has Matt Rosendale’s endorsement or not.” The next day, he endorsed Trump.

In an early taste of what a contested Senate GOP primary there may look like should Rosendale officially hop into the race, the Washington Examiner reported earlier on Tuesday that GOP political consultant Alex Bruesewitz’s invitation to speak at the Montana GOP’s winter kickoff was revoked because of his criticism of the congressman’s perceived “disloyalty” to the former president. “The only reason he endorsed Trump is because if he runs for Senate, he knows that he’d get absolutely crushed if he ultimately didn’t do it,” Bruesewitz told NR.

If Rosendale decides to run for Senate, brace for a bitter primary fight.