That’s one some analysts are now saying, according to the Christian Science Monitor, though Larry Sabato insists that the third candidate deserves a full point, not just a half-point.
Who is that third contender with the iffy point value? Rudy Giuliani:
The campaign of Sen. John McCain (R) of Arizona, once seen as the GOP heir apparent, is nearly bankrupt, and with Thompson entering the race, that makes his money chase all the more difficult. Mr. Giuliani could remain strong if there’s continued national focus on terrorism – and especially if the US is attacked again before the primaries. But failing that, the race may well boil down to Thompson and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, analysts say.
Despite Giuliani’s longstanding position at the top of the GOP heap in national 2008 presidential polls, political experts have attributed that lead to name recognition. As conservative base voters have learned about Giuliani’s liberal positions on abortion and gay rights, the former mayor’s overall support has declined.
But more important than national polls are the early nomination states – Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida. Mr. Romney is strong in the first three, but mired at 4 percent in South Carolina in the latest poll, conducted by CNN July 16-18. In Florida, Romney is at 9 percent and 12 percent, in the latest polls taken there – the first by Quinnipiac University and the second by American Research Group.
Giuliani still leads in both Southern states, but the formal entrance of Thompson into the race could change that dramatically. Thompson is expected to play especially well on his Southern home turf, where his accent, mainstream religious affiliation (Church of Christ), and consistent conservative voting record as a senator contrast with Romney’s Northern sensibility, Mormon faith, and recent conversion to conservative social views.