Today’s Morning Jolt discusses the latest New York Times polls in three key Senate races, but after I sent it off to the editors, I ran across the latest Washington Post survey in Ohio, and three new Marist polls.
The Washington Post: “A must-win Senate election for Democrats to keep control of the chamber is essentially tied, with 48 percent supporting Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and 47 percent supporting Republican Bernie Moreno, well within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.”
Marist, surveying Ohio: “In the race for U.S Senate in Ohio, Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown receives the support of 50 percent of likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Republican challenger Bernie Moreno receives 48 percent.”
Is Moreno the favorite or a safe bet? No, but with numbers like these, he definitely has a shot. Republicans have good reason to be optimistic about how Moreno has closed the gap in the past few weeks.
Marist, surveying Texas: “51 percent of likely voters statewide say they support incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz for U.S. Senate. 46 percent support his Democratic challenger, Colin Allred.”
Marist, surveying Florida: “In the race for U.S. Senate in Florida, two points separate Republican incumbent Rick Scott (50 percent) and his Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (48 percent) among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.”
That’s a much tighter race than the Times poll, which has Scott ahead, 49 percent to 40 percent.
As I said earlier in the week, it is extremely difficult to win a Senate race when your party’s nominee is losing the state. (Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego looks like the safest bet to reach that rare achievement this cycle.)