NYT/Siena has Donald Trump winning Florida by 13 points among registered voters, and by 14 points among likely voters. That seems a little high to me*, but the direction seems basically correct. In recent weeks, I’ve heard some noise about Florida being “in play” for Kamala Harris. I assume that some of this is mere hype, designed to help the Democrats’ Senate candidate, but, whatever its cause, I’d advise election-watchers to take it with a pinch of salt. Florida is not “in play.” It’s going to vote for Donald Trump and Rick Scott at the federal level, and for a Republican-run legislature at the state level. Were I betting on it, I’d put Trump’s final margin closer to seven or eight, but, given the way things have been going here of late, I wouldn’t be shocked if it hit double digits.
Siena has Trump’s favorable ratings at 53–46 and Harris’s at 42–56. Trump is winning “would do a better job of handling the issue you think is most important” by 15 points; he’s winning “would help people like you” by 13 points; and he’s winning “cares about people like you” by seven points. Only 21 percent of respondents said the economy is “excellent” or “good,” with 78 percent saying it’s “only fair” or “poor.” (“Poor” got 57 percent of the vote.) Only 20 percent of Floridians said that “Joe Biden’s policies have helped [them] personally,” with 46 percent saying they’d “hurt [them] personally.” The self-identified Republican/Democrat split was 55–40. Unless all of these numbers are way, way off, it’s hard to imagine the actual vote totals will be too far behind.
*For the sake of transparency, I ought to note that, while it was obvious to me that Ron DeSantis was going to be easily reelected in 2022, I did not see him winning by the astonishing 19 points that he eventually put on the board.