I would not be shocked if in the coming weeks we see some polls showing Ramaswamy ahead of DeSantis.
The first Republican presidential debate just concluded, and here are my general takeaways:
Vivek Ramaswamy may not be my cup of tea, and most of what he said will not stand up to close scrutiny, but in the absence of Donald Trump, he was the big personality that attracted the most attention on stage and told a lot of primary voters what they wanted to hear. A few months ago, few people would have predicted that, in the first primary debate, most other candidates would come gunning for him, but that’s the way it went — and that in and of itself is a victory for him. He may have a relatively limited appeal compared with Trump, but his answers — on pardoning Trump, on climate change being a hoax, on stopping aid to Ukraine, on representing a break from predictable politicians — will resonate among those who like Trump but are open to somebody else. And his continued strength with this segment of gettable pro-Trump voters will make life more difficult for Ron DeSantis, who needs those “Trumpism without Trump” voters if he is to have any hope of winning the nomination. I would not be shocked if in the coming weeks we see some polls showing Ramaswamy ahead of DeSantis.
Most people assumed that, with Trump out of the picture, DeSantis would take center stage. But with Ramaswamy getting under the skin of the other candidates, the Florida governor almost seemed like an afterthought. Long stretches of the debate went by when people watching at home might have forgotten that he was even on the stage. One might view the focus on Ramaswamy, as Noah argued, as good news for DeSantis. And it’s true that having the spotlight off him allowed DeSantis to talk about his record in Florida without having to spend the whole debate on the defensive. He did not make any major mistakes. Still, given how far behind he is against Trump, merely surviving a debate isn’t good enough. He has to make up ground and re-establish himself as the clear alternative to Trump. He didn’t hobble himself tonight, but he didn’t do anything to meaningfully change the trajectory of his campaign.
While DeSantis and Ramaswamy vied for voters who are looking for an alternative to Trump but do not want to return to the old way of doing things, Mike Pence and Nikki Haley did well to advance themselves among voters who are looking for a return to a Republican Party as it existed before Trump. Pence presented himself as the sober, steady hand who has the broadest experience and a record as a principled three-legged-stool conservative. Haley presented herself as somebody who is representative of a new generation and who is more focused on what it would take to win in a general election. Both of them clashed with Ramaswamy, and I think Haley did the best at dressing down the novice, saying with authority, “You have no foreign-policy experience — and it shows.”
A central tactic for Chris Christie’s campaign was clearly to get on the debate stage with Trump and go after him head on — stating unequivocally and to his face that he lost to Joe Biden and that his post-defeat behavior was a disgrace. Trump’s decision not to debate pulled the rug out from under him. Going into the debate, Rich had warned other candidates to watch out for Christie, and he did attempt to redo his Marco Rubio moment a few times (especially with Ramaswamy), but I don’t think any of those exchanges had much of an effect. For instance, Christie went after Ramaswamy for being “like ChatGPT” and stealing Barack Obama’s line about being a “skinny guy with a funny last name,” but Ramaswamy was able to turn the tables by cheerfully reminding the audience of when Christie hugged Obama before the 2012 election during Hurricane Sandy, which had earned him much criticism among Republican voters. The episode, rather than unravel Ramaswamy, basically made both of them look petty.
Tim Scott’s strength is that he’s affable and has a relaxed, cool demeanor, which makes him appealing as a candidate. But it is also a disadvantage on a crowded debate stage, when making a splash requires breaking the rules, butting into the conversation, and mixing it up.