I think Chris Christie will be a human weapon who easily could decapitate someone, most likely DeSantis or Vivek, so they’d better be ready. There’s also a chance Christie is the strongest, most vivid presence on the stage.
I would have thought Vivek would definitely have a good night, but now he’s got some explaining to do. He’s nothing if not glib, so he may well still shine, but the others have an incentive to go after him in a way they didn’t a month ago.
Desantis is going to be the target of everyone. I expect him to be well-prepared and have a good answer for everything, but if you are attacked all night, it’s hard not to seem on the defensive. Also, there’s the question of whether his answers will be colorful and memorable enough to punch through. And who knows how a tense exchange with someone will bounce? He obviously can’t afford a poor performance or a viral-worthy bad moment.
Tim Scott is in the opposite position. No one has an incentive to go after him, so he should have free running room. His tendency may be to over-rely on bits from his stump speech, though.
Finally, there’s Trump. He may be made to pay a political price for skipping as Charlie outlines here, but he just needs a status-quo debate. Maybe he wants DeSantis to drop further, especially in Iowa. Otherwise, he should be happy with a jumbled field with no breakout star showing the strength to consolidate enough of the non-Trump vote to threaten him.
Anyway, you can follow along on our liveblog here at 9 p.m.