The number of electric vehicles (EVs) sold in the U.S. will, I am sure, continue to rise, but look (not very hard) and it’s easy enough to see warning signs that American consumers are not yet ready to switch to EVs at quite the pace the central planners have in mind. If that is the case, things may start to get tricky for the automakers who have been “encouraged” to pour billions into EV manufacturing.
Joann Muller of Axios, a site inclined to take an optimistic view of EVs’ prospects, explains that now that many of the early adopters have, well, adopted, EV sales growth may be “longer and bumpier than many experts predicted.”
Ah yes, experts.
Quite reasonably Muller cites consumers’ worries about price, range/charging, and the expectation that better EVs are in the pipeline as factors holding back the growth in demand. And this, she argues, is leading carmakers to hedge their bets, cut prices, and “recalibrate” their strategies. “No automakers are doing an about-face on electrics, but many are acknowledging that they need to be flexible as they navigate the EV transition.”
True enough, but will central planners on either side of the Atlantic give them that flexibility?
I commented on Ford’s, uh, recalibration here, but as Muller writes, there’s more. For example, Mazda is dropping the slow-selling MX-30 EV from its lineup to concentrate on plug-in hybrids. I wrote about the strange new respect for hybrids here. Toyota, the long-term leader in hybrids, has been making that case for some time, for reasons rooted in both self-interest and logic, but has been pressed to do more on the EV side. And Toyota being Toyota, it has interesting news on that side.
The Financial Times:
Toyota has unveiled ambitions to halve the size, cost and weight of batteries for its electric vehicles following a breakthrough in its solid-state battery technology…
“For both our liquid and solid-state batteries, we are aiming to drastically change the situation where current batteries are too big, heavy and expensive,” said Keiji Kaita, president of Toyota’s research and development centre for carbon neutrality. “In terms of potential, we will aim to halve all of these factors.”
The comments come after the world’s largest carmaker by sales surprised investors last month with plans to commercialise its solid-state battery technology in an electric vehicle by 2027 at the earliest. Toyota is also working on the technology with Panasonic through their joint battery venture.
Solid-state batteries have long been heralded by industry experts as the most promising technology to solve EV battery problems such as charging time, capacity and the risk of catching fire. They replace a liquid electrolyte with a solid one and use lithium metal at the anode instead of graphite, the current standard in lithium-ion batteries.
“Charging time, capacity and the risk of catching fire.”
It’s a complete mystery why people might have some doubts about EVs. To be fair, the, ahem, fire problem is not that EVs are more prone to catch fire (they are not), it’s that when they (or, more accurately, their batteries) do, the fire is more difficult to put out.
But back to the FT and the cheerier topic of solid-state batteries:
Kaita said the company discovered ways to address the durability problems from about three years ago and now had enough confidence to mass-produce solid-state batteries in EVs by 2027 or 2028.
Toyota claimed it had made a “technological breakthrough” to resolve durability issues and “a solution for materials” that would allow an EV powered by a solid-state battery to have a range of 1,200km and charging time of 10 minutes or less.
“All of our members are highly motivated and are working with the intention to definitely launch” the technology by the promised timeline, said Kaita.
By reducing the number of processes required to make battery materials, the cost of solid-state batteries could be lowered to similar or cheaper levels than liquid-based lithium-ion batteries, he added.
Interesting.
Axios’s Murray also refers to VW and Mercedes delaying or recalibrating their plans. Click on the link she supplies to find a story in Automotive News Europe from late 2022, so somewhat elderly. That said, German automakers are clearly facing tough times ahead as Chinese EVs emerge as one of the most serious challenges Germany’s vital auto sector has faced for a long time whether domestically, elsewhere in the EU, or, yes, in China, a country where German manufacturers have had a major presence for years.
That’s going to mean economic and, quite probably, political trouble.