Don’t Look Now — Trump Would Probably Win If the Election Were Held Today

According to the Nate Silver model, Trump is now back at a 60 percent chance to win the election:

There are all sorts of models and polling averages out there, and I don’t know enough about it to know whether Silver’s is better than anyone else’s (60 percent sounds high to me). But Harris has only a very narrow lead at the national level, which would probably mean that — once you account for Trump’s Electoral College advantage and perhaps a slight polling error against him — he’d win if the election were held today.

This is after about a month and a half of uninterrupted joy and an equal period of scuffling from Trump.