While most of the focus this week is on the Democratic National Convention, another story popped up today that could end up having more of an impact on the election than anything that happens in Chicago. And that is Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s running mate, Nicole Shanahan, revealing that the campaign is mulling two options: (1) Staying in the race in a bid to clear the 5 percent threshold and become eligible for public financing and ballot access next time, or (2) Drop out and endorse Donald Trump to prevent a Kamala Harris presidency.
Now, it’s possible that Shanahan was speaking out of turn and there isn’t any serious thinking going on along these lines. His running mate going rogue would not be the strangest thing that’s happened during the campaign. But assuming she is providing an accurate account of his current thinking, it’s a prospect worth taking seriously.
As RFK Jr.’s support has declined and he’s drawn attention for bizarre controversies (such as admitting to dumping a bear carcass in New York City’s Central Park and staging it to look like a bike accident), his potential to affect the race has been increasingly dismissed. But he is still pulling around 3 to 6 percent in polls, depending on the survey, or which state. Today, for instance, there was a Roanoke College poll of Virginia showing Harris up by just three points there, with Kennedy at 6 percent.
We don’t have enough data on who makes up the pool of current RFK Jr. supporters. For reference, the Virginia poll showed Kennedy pulling from each candidate equally. But there is a difference between a scenario in which RFK Jr. drops out and one in which he drops out and endorses Trump. If his candidacy simply ends, his supporters likely stay home or scatter among the remaining candidates. If RFK Jr. endorses Trump, however, one has to assume that on net, Trump gains more of his supporters than Harris does. This may be a small number, but still enough to make a huge difference.
Recall that in 2020, Trump lost Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia by about 43,000 votes. Had those gone the other way, it would have resulted in an Electoral College tie. This year, the RealClearPolitics average has seven states currently within two points or less.
It is of course possible that an RFK Jr. endorsement would have downsides. The Harris campaign would immediately attempt to tie all the odd statements RFK Jr. has made over the years to Trump and use it as part of their anti-“weird” campaign.
Either way, however, the RFK Jr. factor is a major wildcard in the race that nobody should sleep on.