This conviction is going to hurt Trump among the undecided voters that he needs to win in November.
I read with interest Noah Rothman’s analysis of what effect Trump’s conviction might have on his “unlikely voters”: the marginal and low-propensity voters that are, in theory, more likely to vote for him than for Joe Biden, and who might — again, in theory — be decisive in winning Trump a second term.
The polls of the 2024 presidential race have shown it to be a tight contest for months, and the voters that matter in it are the voters on the margins. How will they react to the verdict?
The short answer is that no one knows. Indeed, the question may be unanswerable before the votes are counted. But we have a rough idea of what kind of voter we should be watching closely: the unlikely sort.
Will undecideds concerned about their grocery bills and the price at the pump rally to Donald Trump? Or will they be repelled by “Trump the convicted felon” and pull the lever for the incumbent or, perhaps more likely, simply stay home on Election Day?
Polling questions posed to these flaky voters may give us a glimpse into the hazy future, but if one takes Trump’s press conference this morning at Trump Tower as a principal data point in the coming messaging war, I would err on the side of the latter option. In his rambling 33-minute speech (he took no questions), Trump’s main message explaining his felony conviction was: “The Democrats are coming after you. I’m just in the way.”
Now, I have long thought Michael Brendan Dougherty’s heuristic analysis of Trump’s 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton to be more compelling than any alternative on offer. Fundamentally, according to MBD, Hillary Clinton asked voters to declare, “I’m with her.” Trump, on the other hand and very cleverly, campaigned on the idea that “I’m with you.” Setting aside the validity of either slogan or Trump’s follow-through while president, it’s easy enough to see why undecided, non-ideological voters would decide to take a chance on Trump 2016. He was then the outsider, traitor-to-his-class, anti-establishment candidate.
It’s much harder to see what undecided, non-ideological voters would find so appealing today about Trump’s 2024 message of “The Democrats are coming after you. I’m just in the way.”
Will this message be effective in rallying self-described Republicans or conservatives? I think the evidence shows that it has been and will continue to be this November. But, again, we’re talking about the marginal, non-ideological set of swing voters who may very well decide the election. Do they think that Democrats are coming after them? Do they think that Trump is all that stands in the way of Democrats’ perfidy? Can they be rallied to Trump’s cause because of a perceived unfairness in his prosecution? Will they be motivated to vote for Trump’s new message?
If you’re reading this, you, almost by definition, follow politics closer than 95 percent of your fellow countrymen. By definition, your knowledge of the facts and particulars of Trump’s case will be much, much higher than the average voter, let alone this class of marginal, low-propensity, non-ideological “sometimes” voters.
So, for one second, put yourself in their shoes. Put yourself in the shoes of the man or woman who gets his or her “political news” from The Tonight Show, or Access Hollywood, or TikTok. Right or wrong, all that they’re going to hear about this case will be “hush money,” “porn star,” “convicted felon,” and “convicted by a jury of his peers.” They will know next to nothing about the personal politics of the judge nor will they care. They won’t know anything about venue selection or pre-trial motions or Trump’s strategy for appellate litigation.
Will there be a sneaking suspicion that maybe Trump got railroaded on this one? Sure, maybe. But I think that could be just as easily counterbalanced by a sneaking suspicion that Trump’s enemies might have taken the low road, but that he “probably had it coming” on one thing or another.
Contra what many on the right might think in the aftermath of Thursday’s verdict, unless Trump decides to change his 2024 message back to “I’m with you” and away from “I’m just in the way,” this conviction is going to hurt Trump among the undecided voters that he needs to win in November.