From a reader:
Jonah:
Think about this – in 2000, GWB garndered 9% of the African American vote. In 2004, his percentage grew to 11%. Currently, all the polls show McCain winning only 3% to 5% of the AA vote. Is it not possible that many African Americans are engaging in the Bradley Effect, too? That is, they’re afraid to tell pollsters that they are AA and voting agains the first AA nominee for president? What if, on Nov. 4, McCain actually claims 6,7,8 or 9 percent of the AA vote? Will those voters be cast as sell-outs or Uncle Toms?
I think Obama will win a higher percentage of AA voters than GWB did in 2000 or 2004 for the simple fact that he’ll probably draw more AA voters to the polls. But to think he’ll cut GOP AA votes by 50% or more, I think, is probably wishful thinking on the MSM and Obama’s part.
I think there’s a certain plausibility here, though my guess is that black turnout for Obama is going to be so huge that even if McCain picks up more black votes in absolute numbers than the polls or conventional wisdom suggest, the percentage will still be very small. Also, we’ll never know how many Bradley-effect blacks voted for McCain because if they were afraid to tell pollsters on the way in, they’ll almost certainly be afraid to tell pollsters on the way out as well.