The Kansas referendum convinced Democrats that the issue of abortion was a magic wand that could overcome, or mitigate, problems on all other issues.
The political environment and outlook for the midterm elections feels like they took a real shift to the right in the past week or so. Besides all the promising polls mentioned below in the Corner, Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report concludes, “there is an increasing likelihood that Republicans may not lose a single incumbent senator or governor.”
A lot of factors are contributing to this new sense of impending doom for the Democrats, but I would focus on two major miscalculations on the part of the Biden administration and its congressional allies as the most consequential. The first focuses on inflation and the broader economy. Survey after survey indicates that inflation is the biggest issue on voters’ minds, and it has been atop their minds for quite a while now. Americans feel squeezed, and they’re pessimistic about the future. Democrats passed the so-called Inflation Reduction Act in late summer, and it’s almost as if they thought that would solve the problem, or at least satisfy voters until November.
But with year-over-year inflation coming in at 8.2 percent in the month of September, not enough of a reduction from the 2022 peak of 9.1 in June, Americans just don’t see any relief. There just wasn’t anything Democrats could point to in that most recent update to convincingly argue that the country had turned a corner — shelter, food costs, medical care, all of it is growing more expensive.
The result is that Biden and his allies just don’t have much to say about inflation; today Biden spoke about the economy and didn’t mention inflation until about the 24th paragraph. Biden’s primary message was contending that electing Republicans would make inflation worse:
They talk about inflation. Everything they proposed — are proposing will make inflation worse. Everything they’re proposing would make inflation worse.
Let me close with this: Over the last few years, we’ve faced some of the most difficult challenges in our history both at home and abroad, but we’re making real progress. We just have to keep going. I know we can.
For everything we’ve been through, I’ve never been more optimistic about our — America’s future.
Biden’s been using that “I’ve never been more optimistic about America’s future” line for more than a year, and at this point it’s just meaningless boilerplate. Great, he’s optimistic; meanwhile, the mortgage, rent, grocery, home-heating, home-electricity, and gasoline bills still have to be paid. Biden is always telling you things will get better, and insisting that everything getting worse isn’t his fault. No wonder no embattled Democrat wants to have him appear at a rally in their state. All he has to offer is more old, tired rhetoric from an old, tired man.
The second major miscalculation by the Democrats was on abortion, and I think it’s hard to overstate how elated Democrats were when they saw an overwhelming majority of Kansas voters defeat a referendum that would have added language to the state constitution declaring that the state’s basic law “does not create or secure a right to abortion.” And it’s understandable — it’s heavily Republican Kansas! The heartland! If there were a motivated pro-choice majority in that state, imagine what Democrats could do with that issue in every other state.
Kansas convinced Democrats that the abortion issue was a magic wand that could and would overcome, or at least mitigate, all other problems and issues. In a sign that Democrats were learning the wrong lesson from Kansas, they failed to notice that the state’s Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, was “very much not centering her campaign on abortion.” Kansans had too many other issues of concern. Kelly told CNN, “What they want me as governor to do is to focus on the kitchen table issues. You know, they want me to focus on the economy. And we have done that.”
Democrats also seemed to overlook that the big win on abortion was a referendum, not a race between two candidates. Campaigns for public office are between two or more candidates, and electorates decide whom they want to elect based on the person, not just their stances. If every race were a choice between two crash-test dummies with big PRO-LIFE or PRO-CHOICE labels on them, maybe Democrats would be in better shape. Unfortunately, they’re running flesh-and-blood human beings with their own quirks and flaws.
Finally, even pro-choice voters may find economic issues more important in conditions like this:
“I’m shifting more towards Republican because I feel like they’re more geared towards business,” said Robin Ackerman, a 37-year-old Democrat and mortgage loan officer who lives in New Castle, Del., and is planning to vote Republican this fall.
Ms. Ackerman said she disagreed “1,000 percent” with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and erase the national right to an abortion. “But that doesn’t really have a lot to do with my decision,” she said of her fall vote. “I’m more worried about other things.”
Now, the question is: Did the president, his top staff, his top strategists, and congressional Democrats all underestimate the importance of the issue of inflation because they operate in ideological bubbles, or did they underestimate the importance of the issue of inflation because they are wealthy enough to not really feel the squeeze?