It’s not that last night’s contests in Idaho, Hawaii, Michigan and Mississsippi doomed Marco Rubio’s campaign; it’s that the four bad performances atop Rubio’s previous disappointments — New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, and just about everywhere else not called Minnesota and Puerto Rico – have now created what feels like an insurmountable perception of defeat.
Three Rubio-friendly conservative writers — Jen Rubin of the Washington Post, Dan McLaughlin of Red State, and Guy Benson of Townhall.com — contend it’s time for Rubio to quit the race and endorse Ted Cruz.
Jen and Dan urge Rubio to strike the deal now to be Cruz’s running mate. (This assumes Cruz wants Rubio to be his vice-president.)
Guy suggests that Rubio should announce he’s withdrawing, but urge his supporters in Florida to still vote for him, as that is the more likely way to deny Trump all of Florida’s 99 delegates. This isn’t likely to work; the announcement that Rubio was quitting the race would prompt some current Rubio supporters to shift to Cruz, simply out of the psychological perception that a vote for Rubio was a wasted vote.
The “everyone unites around Cruz” strategy might be the best option remaining for the #NeverTrump crowd, but it still has flaws. Throughout this cycle, Cruz has experienced his own disappointments, losing demographics he was supposed to win. If Cruz can’t beat Trump among evangelicals in many states, how certain can anyone be that Cruz will beat Trump in those other key demographics? Cruz keeps losing to Trump among “moderate conservative” or “somewhat conservative” and “moderate” GOP voters. Why will that change in the coming weeks?