If Gov. Charlie Crist (R., Fla.) decides to run as an independent candidate for U.S. Senate tomorrow, he’ll face a “must-win race,” Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, tells National Review Online. “This is all or nothing. If he loses in November, he’s finished.”
Far behind in GOP primary polls to Marco Rubio, Crist “has no other option” but to turn independent, Sabato says. “Unless he wants to go into private life, that is, and Charlie Crist does not seem to be someone who can easily walk away from politics, so this is really it for him. It’s the only way for him to survive.”
Can Crist win? Maybe. “He can finance [an independent run] because he’s governor, that’s key,” Sabato explains. “He is betting that the credit-card investigation of Rubio will bear fruit. It could end up doing that or it could be completely trivial. In a year so completely Republican, a wave could also wash over any allegations. Crist is hoping that Floridians will eventually see Rubio as too unknown or damaged and [Democrat Kendrick] Meek as too liberal. That’s how he wins: He doesn’t just get moderate Republicans. He has to crack Meek’s total and get moderate Democrats on his side.” It won’t be easy. “He’s not going to have many allies.”
“Don’t underestimate the influence of [former Florida governor] Jeb Bush here,” Sabato adds. “He’s got Crist on the ropes and will do his best to make sure that Crist never gets off the ropes. He knows that if Crist loses in November, he’s through. That was Bush’s goal in the beginning. He’s going to campaign vigorously for Rubio, along with every other Republican under the sun. They have no reason to stick with Crist. Even John McCain has walked away.”
Sabato expects Crist to hit the trail as an independent with a new message: “Me against the machines.” That message, he says, could resonate. “He’ll use that idea to portray the Obama machine on one side and the national GOP machine on the other. It’s an odd year. You do have that anti-incumbency feeling out there. It would be amusing if Crist became the outsider because of this, as the incumbent governor. While ‘Crist versus the machines’ may sound funny, remember, ‘man versus machine’ has won a lot of races throughout American history.”
And how should Rubio respond to a switch? Sabato says he shouldn’t overplay his hand. “Rubio as the Republican nominee in a moderate-conservative state, in a GOP year, ought to focus on what he wants to do. He will have a lot of support and money. The tide is with him, the wind is at his back. He should capitalize on that. If he runs a negative race just attacking Crist, that doesn’t present him in the light in which he wants to be seen. He’s an ideological candidate who stands for ideas. To change that would be dangerous.”