New Hampshire has been remarkably uncompetitive this cycle; who’s in second place changes, but Mitt Romney is always in the lead, and usually by a huge margin. That could have repercussions; it’s certainly not outside the realm of possibility that Romney could win Iowa, especially if the conservative vote splinters among multiple candidates. And if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire … well, there’s no recent precedent for a GOP candidate winning neither of those two states and going on to win the nomination.
The latest candidate to land in second place in NH polls is Newt Gingrich. In my piece today, I look at whether he has a chance at winning the Granite State:
Now, armed with the New Hampshire Union Leader endorsement, Gingrich is poised to become Romney’s top rival in a state renowned for overturning conventional expectations of primary results. John McCain shot to an unexpected victory here in 2000, as did Hillary Clinton in 2008. And if the stars align, Gingrich may just be able to pull off the same stunt.
“The New Hampshire primary has long been a very rough road for a frontrunner to close here,” says Rich Killion, a New Hampshire GOP strategist who is not affiliated with any of the presidential campaigns. “And historically, for a whole multitude of reasons, New Hampshire voters decide late. If you go back and look at exit polls of the last four, five cycles, you’ll probably see anywhere between a third to 40 percent of the primary electorate will actually make up its mind on this race in the final days. As we stand right now, 65 percent of the electorate hasn’t closed on their final candidate.”
There’s no easy path for Gingrich to win in New Hampshire. But those I spoke to agreed: Gingrich is a more viable not-Romney contender in that state than some of his predecessors have been, thanks partially to his history of visiting the state.