Democrats are throwing Kyrsten Sinema under the bus. Progressives have been dissatisfied with the Arizona maverick’s independent streak since she assumed office in 2019, and when she finally defected from the party in December, that was the last straw.
Now, even though she is still technically one of three independent senators to caucus with the Democrats in the Senate, she’s become a persona non grata on the left. Progressive House member Ruben Gallego is now planning to challenge Sinema in 2024, and Democratic Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) has declined to say whether he would back her reelection bid. To add insult to injury, leadership passed over her for a place on the influential Appropriations Committee despite her best efforts to secure a spot.
It looks like 2024 will bring a three-way election for Sinema’s seat among the eventual Republican nominee, Gallego (assuming he wins the Democratic primary), and Sinema, an electoral contest in which she will have little institutional support. This candidate field will inevitably split progressives, providing Republicans with a golden opportunity for a pickup.
If Sinema wants to salvage her political career, she may want to take the advice of Senate minority whip John Thune, one of her “best friends in the chamber,” and start to caucus with Senate Republicans.
Admittedly, this wouldn’t be a perfect fit. Sinema is considerably left of the median Republican in a variety of policy areas, especially social issues, and conservatives should want a senator who more adequately reflects their values, especially in Barry Goldwater’s home state. But on the whole, she’s not terrible, and given the shambolic state of the Arizona GOP and its abysmal track record the last few election cycles, there’s no reason to have faith that the state party will nominate a candidate in 2024 who’s capable of winning a statewide general election.
Perhaps Sinema fills the bill as “the most conservative candidate who is electable.” If so, Republicans might be wise to welcome her with open arms, and Kyrsten might want to think about coming over to the dark side.