Some months ago, a gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia was damaged (just in time for winter) as were two telecommunications cables, one between Sweden and Estonia, the other between Finland and Estonia.
Naturally, all three countries have been investigating whether this was all just an unfortunate coincidence or whether something more sinister was afoot, and, if it was the latter, trying to establish who was responsible.
As the investigation into damage to Baltic Sea critical infrastructure continues, Finland’s Minister of European Affairs Anders Adlercreutz said it’s hard to believe sabotage to the undersea gas pipeline was accidental — or that it happened without Beijing’s knowledge.
“I’m not the sea captain. But I would think that you would notice that you’re dragging an anchor behind you for hundreds of kilometers,” Adlercreutz said in an interview Thursday in Brussels. “I think everything indicates that it was intentional. But of course, so far, nobody has admitted to it.”
. . . An investigation by Finnish authorities identified as the main suspect Chinese container ship Newnew Polar Bear, which is believed to have dragged its anchor across the Baltic Sea seabed, cutting through the cables and gas lines. The anchor — which weighs 6,000 kilograms — was retrieved a few meters from the site of the damage.
Finland and Estonia have since been in touch with Chinese authorities seeking their cooperation with the investigation. The Baltic Times reported earlier this week that the two European countries have asked to send representatives to Beijing to investigate the vessel, which is currently en route to a Chinese port.
Adlercreutz said he can’t speculate on whether the action was approved by the Chinese government. But the vessel’s imminent return to China raises some questions, he said.
“If I as a captain would have done something that the Chinese government wouldn’t approve of, then I would be concerned about returning with my boat to China,” he said.
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur expressed similar sentiment in an interview with Swedish public broadcaster SVT last month, saying the captain of the ship surely “understood that there was something wrong” after dragging an anchor for over 180 kilometers.
Could it be that China, our trading partner and key ally in the fight to save the planet, has been helping out Russia?
Surely not!
As Europe’s decarbonization lurches along, the continent’s dependence on undersea infrastructure will increase. Given the extent and the location of the seabed that the new cables will traverse, it’s far from clear how they can be kept secure. There’s also another, related problem. A covert attack by unknown actors on a piece of (sometimes extraterritorial) infrastructure is a classic example of (to use the jargon) “gray zone” aggression, and a general promise of a military response is unlikely to be convincing enough to be a credible deterrent (the saboteurs will typically have long since left the scene). So, what to do?