Joe Biden received approximately 87 percent of the black vote in 2020. The Wall Street Journal reports that there are signs that black voters, dissatisfied with “the economy and Biden’s leadership,” are slipping away from Biden as 2024 approaches. Democrats are concerned not only that black turnout for the presidential election may be low (a growing number of black voters have indicated that they might not vote at all in 2024) but that some may switch to the GOP candidate.
The Democratic share of the white vote over the last ten presidential-election cycles has averaged just 39 percent. The Democratic share of the black vote over the same period is 88.9 percent. Eligible black voters are 8 to 13 percent less likely to turn out than white voters. Unless the Democratic presidential candidate receives 88–89 percent of a robust black voter turnout, the Republican likely will win. (Clinton got 89 percent of the black vote in 2020 and still lost; Gore got 90 percent in 2000 and suffered the same fate.)
A recent New York Times/Siena College poll has Donald Trump receiving 22 percent of the black vote in a matchup against Biden.
The above figures suggest that the number of major-media stories about supposedly widespread and virulent Republican racism will increase exponentially over the next several months.