Former Hamas commander’s communications reveal that the terrorist group counted on Biden’s capitulatory instincts.
For months, observers of Joe Biden’s schizophrenic approach to supporting Israel’s objectives in the war against Hamas could only speculate as to whether his discomfort with Israeli tactics provided the terrorist organization with the will to maintain its resistance. We need speculate no longer.
The elimination of Hamas’s foremost commander in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar, has allowed investigators to uncover some of his communications. A deeply reported account, in the Wall Street Journal, of Sinwar’s conduct prior to and during the war that began on October 7 reveals the degree to which Hamas’s leadership expected that Biden’s capitulatory instincts would buy them a reprieve.
“As Arab mediators tried to speed up cease-fire talks, Sinwar urged his comrades in Hamas’s political leadership based outside of Gaza to refuse concessions,” the Journal reports. “High civilian casualties would create worldwide pressure on Israel, Sinwar said in a message.” Even as the IDF closed in on Sinwar’s position, he expected Biden would save him.
Again, Sinwar messaged Hamas officials, urging them to refuse a hostage deal. Hamas had the upper hand in negotiations, Sinwar said, citing internal political divisions within Israel, cracks in Netanyahu’s wartime coalition and mounting U.S. pressure to alleviate the suffering in Gaza.
“We have to move forward on the same path we started,” Sinwar wrote.
Ultimately, Sinwar’s faith in Biden’s capacity to compel Israel to abandon its wartime objectives was misplaced. “Arab negotiators offered Sinwar an escape in exchange for allowing Egypt to negotiate for the release of the hostages on behalf of Hamas, but he declined,” the report reads. Following the elimination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, Sinwar foresaw his own death. Still, he urged the Hamas terrorists who would succeed him to avoid compromise. After he was dead, “Israel would likely offer concessions.” Sinwar was right about that. But those concessions have so far consisted only of offers of amnesty to the Hamas fighters who deliver the remaining 10/7 hostages to Israeli custody.
Sinwar miscalculated. He misread Israel’s resolve to pursue its wartime objectives. He overestimated Biden’s influence over Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. But he was only interpreting the signals he received from the Biden White House. Those he heard loud and clear.