Behold, If You Dare, the Mind of the Undecided Voter

Earlier this month, NPR published the transcript of a focus group consisting of registered voters who disapprove of both parties’ presumptive nominees — the so-called “double haters,” who made up a significant 14 percent of respondents to the latest NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist poll. This is a demographic with which I identify and, therefore, have some sympathy. But after reading the minutes from this conversation, I came away grateful to NPR for curing me of my unwarranted commiseration with the “double disapprovers.”

The six participants in this focus group fall generally into a variety of familiar categories. There are the self-reported “undecided” voters who are, in fact, committed partisans, the parochial voters who assure themselves their narrow self-interest is a species of practicality, the wild-eyed idealists whose laudable refusal to compromise their principles renders them functionally unpersuadable (and, therefore, unlikely) voters, and the flakes who feel their way through complicated and nuanced policy disputes.

Let’s take Eugene, for example. He doesn’t have many kind words to say about Joe Biden save condemnation through faint praise (“He’s doing the best he can”). But Eugene reserves his ire for the “jackass” Donald Trump. He cannot recall a single thing that Trump has promised to do in a second term in the White House except pledge to “be a dictator on day one.” The best thing Eugene can think to say about the former president is that he is, in fact, “no longer president.”

Eugene’s mirror image, Rob, is as much of a covert partisan. Rob’s distaste for Trump is limited to the degree to which he failed to prosecute his trade war with China with sufficient vigor. He is deeply frustrated by America’s commitment to send “billions to Ukraine” and Israel when it would be more useful to “spend that money with jobs programs and housing for [the] homeless.” America’s foreign adventurism, which included deployments to Iraq and Syria “because of oil,” were failed projects — after all, where’s all that oil? And Rob is pretty sure Biden’s lax immigration policies are part of a nefarious plot. “It’s also known as the great replacement theory in terms of who will vote for the Democratic Party,” he said.

Rob and Eugene are not undecided voters. They may be wavering on the very act of voting, but if they can be persuaded to head to the polls, there is no doubt as to which candidate will earn their support.

Then there are the parochial voters, like Asa and Nikaiya, who have convinced themselves their pursuit of their own interests is a form of altruism.

Asa’s biggest concern is Social Security — not its reform so that it can endure beyond 2033, at which point only 79 percent of the program’s benefits will be available for disbursement. Really, the biggest issue is that he and his wife have “paid in so much money into it and hopefully getting something out of it to help us live a quality of life.” When asked to describe American democracy in one word, he chose “non-caring,” by which he presumably means about his bank account.

Nikaiya is an interesting character, insofar as her sentiments are likely reflective of many potential Trump voters. “What’s crazy is the same things that I dislike about him, I like about him,” she said of the former president. But while she supports many of Trump’s instincts on policy issues, she’ll be pulling the lever for Biden — if she pulls the lever at all — despite struggling with the rising cost of living. “I definitely need my student loans wiped out, which was among one of the promises that was made,” she noted of the incumbent. But despite Nikaiya’s inflation-related hardships, she seems committed to the policies that produced price instability in the first place. “When Trump was president, he did try to get the ball rolling with the stimulus payments,” she added warmly. Trump himself would probably prefer to forget about all that, but Nikaiya remembers.

Cherlyn is the noble idealist of the bunch. She doesn’t have daughters, but she’s worried that the women and girls of the next generation will have “less rights and freedom” (read: abortion) than she had. She doesn’t have to care about the housing market herself but fears for the financial security of a generation that perceives itself to be priced out of home ownership. She has flatly ruled out voting for Trump based on his distasteful personal conduct and the “shady practices” that resulted in his indictments and conviction. But Biden has not earned her support either. “I hate the phrase, but it’s the lesser of two evils,” she said. Given her tragic sincerity, it’s unlikely Cherlyn will be motivated to pull the lever for a figure she openly describes as “evil.”

Then there’s Bob, the voter who emotes his way through thorny policy debates. Bob’s biggest concern over the next few years is the “future of democracy.” He is leaning toward backing Joe Biden because he thinks the president is “patriotic” and has “the best interest of the country at heart.” He’s superior to Trump insofar as Biden has “the ability to represent the country in foreign affairs” (the spectacular debacle in Afghanistan, the failure to deter Russia, and the schizophrenic approach to his support for Israel’s defensive war against Hamas very much notwithstanding). Bob is not without a sound rationale for this claim; he insists that Trump’s erratic approach to relations with America’s NATO and non-NATO allies jeopardized the alliance structure. But the preservation of that alliance structure (which was not just maintained but expanded under Trump) doesn’t weigh as heavily on Bob as Trump’s confrontational rhetoric.

So, how does everyone plan to vote in November, presuming they can drag themselves reluctantly to the polls? Out of the six participants, four plan to back Biden, one is supporting Trump (it’s definitely Rob), and one insists they will sit this election out. These are gettable voters for the two major candidates, but they want to be wooed. And they’ll probably get what they want. In a race as tight as the 2024 presidential election, both campaigns are sure to devote vast sums to studying these voters, appealing to them, and seeking to turn them out. Best of luck to the Biden and Trump camps in that endeavor.