Spent a piece of the weekend exchanging emails and telephone calls with friends, including a couple of political scientists and a couple of people close to campaign staffs. (Yes, I know. I could use a wider circle of friends.) Here’s the way it seems to size up:
1. Gray Davis will be recalled from office by a margin that will fall in the high single digits at the very least-and maybe by as much as 20 points.
2. Arnold will win big, probably by a margin in the double digits, since
a. None of the groping charges has moved Schwarzenegger’s numbers
b. The undecided vote, which as recently as a week ago still amounted to some 23 percent, appears to be breaking Schwarzenegger’s way. In the words of my Hoover colleagues David Brady and Morris Fiorina, who have been conducting polls throughout the recall, “[Our] survey team concluded that undecided voters gravitate to the most visible candidate – the candidate with name recognition.” The candidate with name recognition is, of course, Der Arnold.
c. McClintock’s supporters appear to be drifting from McClintock to Schwarzenegger. When it comes right down to it, evidently, a lot of people would prefer to vote for the winner. McClintock’s support, which peaked at about 18 percent last week, has fallen to about 14 percent. (I wipe a tear from my eye as I report this.)