Some more indications of Trump slippage and DeSantis gains in the new YouGov poll:
The new poll does contain several warning signs for Trump. For one thing, he continues to trail Biden 45% to 42% in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters — despite Biden’s glaring vulnerabilities. For another, a majority of registered voters (53%) now say — in the wake of the House select committee’s high-profile Jan. 6 hearings — that Trump should not even be allowed to serve as president again, due to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. And even though Trump voters are not openly disparaging their party’s leader in the way Biden voters are, they are hardly unanimous in their support for him.
Case in point: While a narrow majority (again, 53%) of Trump voters do still say he would be the GOP’s strongest candidate in 2024, that means that nearly as many of them say either that he would not be the strongest candidate (21%) or that they’re not sure (26%). Likewise, when given a choice, most Republicans and Republican-leaning independents don’t actually say they want Trump to be the 2024 nominee. Against “someone else,” for instance, just 48% choose Trump, while most either select the unnamed alternative (39%) or say they’re not sure (13%). Against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (35%), even fewer pick Trump (44%); more say they’re not sure (20%).
I wrote a column yesterday arguing that it’s 2015 again with Trump — there a lot of questions about exactly what is his real level of support.
Meanwhile, this is another catastrophic finding for Biden, and Harris isn’t benefiting:
A full 55% of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic now say they would rather see “someone else” as the party’s 2024 nominee. That is twice the number who say they would rather see Biden as the nominee (27%).
Who else would Democrats prefer? Not Vice President Kamala Harris, who unsuccessfully sought the 2020 nomination. Assuming Biden doesn’t run in 2024, just 30% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they want Harris to be the nominee. Again, most (52%) say someone else — a number that rises to 55% among those who are actually registered to vote.