Earlier this week, the Society of Family Planning released new abortion estimates for the first three months of 2024, as part of their #WeCount project. Their estimates indicate that abortion numbers continue to rise. Overall, they found that in the first three months of 2024, the number of abortions increased by 13.8 percent. Also, January 2024 marked the first month since the Dobbs decision when more than 100,000 abortions were performed. These abortion estimates have been covered by media outlets including the Hill, CNN, Axios, and the Associated Press.
I have always advised pro-lifers to view with some skepticism the abortion estimates from the Society of Family Planning. This is for a couple reasons. First, the Society of Family Planning had no experience estimating U.S. abortion figures prior to 2022. Second, there are some disparities between their state-level estimates and state estimates released by the Guttmacher Institute. For instance, the Society’s 2023 abortion estimates for New Hampshire were more than 24 percent higher than those released by Guttmacher. Their 2023 estimates for Maryland were over 16 percent higher.
That said, there are some findings that should interest pro-lifers. First, telehealth abortions are increasing. When a woman obtains a telehealth abortion, she is mailed chemical abortion pills without an in-person medical exam. According to the report, in the first three months of 2024, 20 percent of all abortions were done via telehealth. This raises questions about the accuracy of these abortion estimates. Telehealth abortions are self-reported by companies that send abortion pills through the mail. These companies may have incentives to inflate their numbers. Furthermore, the fact that abortion pills were ordered does not necessarily mean that an abortion was obtained. Some women might have changed their mind. Others might have ordered chemical-abortion pills for future use.
Furthermore, in the first three months of 2024, over 27,000 telehealth abortions took place under shield laws. This is over 9 percent of the total. Shield laws are in effect in six states. They provide legal protection to medical professionals who send chemical-abortion pills into states with legal protections for preborn children.
This reported increase in telehealth abortions, especially telehealth abortions occurring under shield laws, should concern pro-lifers. Telehealth abortions weaken the impact of many of the protective pro-life laws that have been enacted since the Dobbs decision. Unfortunately, litigation to place limits on chemical abortions failed this summer when the Supreme Court ruled in FDA v. Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine that the pro-life physicians lacked standing to sue.
However, pro-lifers still have other political and legal strategies to limit or stop telehealth abortions. There are legitimate concerns about the constitutionality of the shield laws themselves. State attorneys general in conservative states are reportedly considering various litigation strategies. Furthermore, a pro-life president could simply appoint FDA personnel who would place limits on the shipment and use of chemical-abortion drugs. Donald Trump has certainly not made any promises to place limits on chemical abortions. That said, his FDA appointees would certainly be more sympathetic to the concerns of pro-lifers than any appointees under Kamala Harris.