After Election Day, California Republicans May Regret Having Tried to Recall Gavin Newsom

In a campaign season of brimming Republican enthusiasm, pity the poor California Republicans, whose statewide candidates are (at a last glance at the poll averages) trailing by 21 points in the governor’s race and 22 in the senate race. This is seen as a victory because, in a typical year, Republicans don’t even get on the ballot in those races.

We won’t know how this election season turns out in California for another three or four weeks from now when the ballots are counted. It may well be that the national environment drives a healthy turnout among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, which would explain why Democrats are rushing aid to D+20 districts. But looking around New York, I am left wondering whether California Republicans will regret their failed effort in 2021 to recall governor Gavin Newsom.

Win or lose, Lee Zeldin has tapped into powerful currents in New York: hope that things could change, and pent-up anger at how the state managed the pandemic, crime, and the economy. With Zeldin leading the ticket, Republicans might well flip most or all of the five Democratic-held House seats in the state that are rated D+5 or less (and maybe even one of the three seats that range from D+7 to D+9). There could be other down-ticket benefits as well. I have to wonder if California Republicans, having spent a similar season of enthusiasm last summer to no effect whatsoever, will be similarly motivated. Conversely, the recall could prove to be a successful list-building exercise that helps the state Republican Party rebuild an operation that hasn’t even had a statewide test run in some time. When we examine the results and turnout in the once-Golden State, we will see whether Californians are left behind in the wave.