It is heartening to see the way the blogosphere has jumped into the House leadership race. I think this race is more susceptible to outside influence than other leadership races, both because of the rise of the blogs and because many members are genuinely confused about the way forward. But let’s not kid ourselves. The candidate who has played the traditional, inside game is winning (although even Blunt feels compelled now to do a conference call with bloggers). Roy Blunt has given other Republicans lots of money through his leadership PAC, as this outfit has noted (Boehner has too, which is part of the reason he is running second). Blunt has done them favors over the years, such as getting them flights on corporate jets (this Public Citizen report has a section on the jets, but be warned: it throws the kitchen sink at Blunt and is, I believe, affirmatively dishonest at times). So there is plenty of reason for members to feel that they owe Blunt.
Then, there’s the flip side. If a members aren’t swayed by the favors Blunt has done them over the years, or simply his merits as a leader, there’s the possibility of the dis-favors he can do them if he wins. This is the subtle intimidation factor that always enters into races of this kind, i.e., “You better be with me, the winner, or else.” I wish it were otherwise, but this is just politics. In Blunt’s case, he has magnified this effect by refusing to give up his majority whip job. That allows him to have even more leverage over members, because even if Blunt loses the majority leader race, he will still have a powerful position in leadership from which to remember which members were with him and which weren’t. Believe me, members are keenly aware of this.
So Blunt has some formidable advantages, advantages that can take him a long way even in this new world we live in.