A Farmers’ Revolt — and More

I cannot say that I know much about the BBB (BoerBurgerBeweging, or the Farmer–Citizen Movement political party in the Netherlands), other than that it is a protest party that sprung out of the efforts of the Dutch government and EU regulators to curb nitrogen runoff into the soil and water.

The reasons for these curbs relate to both the preservation of biodiversity and, inevitably, climate policy. Why the latter? Many fertilizers are rich in nitrogen. Nitrogen’s breaking down in rivers and streams sets off a process that ends up with the creation of nitrous oxide, something that can jolly up a visit to the dentist, but is a powerful greenhouse gas.

This is, in particular (but not only), an issue in the Netherlands, a densely populated country with a highly efficient agricultural sector (which has, incidentally, done a great deal to reduce nitrogen runoff).

I wrote about this topic in a Capital Letter last July and noted that part of the Dutch government’s solution was to try to limit agricultural production and “encourage” maybe as many as 30 percent of farmers to give up farming altogether (through compulsory purchase). This has led to widespread protests. As always, such changes are meant to be pushed through very rapidly, and, as always, it’s hard to imagine that the required pace can be justified by the difference it is likely to make.

I added this:

There are many ways to look at the Dutch farmers’ revolt, some tipping over into the conspiratorial fringe, others with a class-based perspective . . . which, if an overly reductive approach can be avoided, is worth thinking about. But what matters for now, is that, even if this conflict is either patched over or peters out, the angry Dutch farmers will have been another early indication of the political and economic turmoil that may be on its way as climate (and certain other environmentalist) policies start to bite.

When asked for their opinion, most people, at least in the West, typically say that they are prepared to do their bit for the planet. But when they start to feel the effects of what that now means — especially in cases when it doesn’t appear to be making much difference — those opinions are, in many cases, likely to change. That is something that politicians currently promoting net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions (or something similar) on timetables with no obvious connection to practical, economic, and political reality are likely to discover.

It will not be a pleasant discovery.

Well (via the Daily Telegraph):

A farmers’ protest party angered by new green laws triumphed in shock Dutch election results, prompting its leader to ask: “People, what the f— happened?”

Caroline van der Plas’s Farmers-Citizen Movement (BBB) is projected to become the equal largest party in the senate, taking 15 seats from none before the vote.

The Left-wing GroenLinks/PvdA is also expected to win 15 seats, in the wake of months of turbulent farmer protests against government plans to cut nitrogen emissions.

Mark Rutte, the centre-Right Dutch prime minister, insisted his coalition government would survive, after its four member parties lost eight of their combined 32 seats in the 75-seat senate.

. . .

The BBB’s victory means the farmers can form alliances with other parties in the senate and block green legislation, in a country that is the world’s second-largest agricultural exporter after the US.

“It is not just about nitrogen,” Ms van der Plas said on Wednesday night, adding that people in the Netherlands were “fed up”.

The BBB’s meteoric rise is particularly astonishing because it was only founded in October 2019 and won a single seat in the Dutch parliament in 2021’s general election.

But the latest elections turned into a de facto referendum on Mr Rutte, who is the longest-serving prime minister in the Netherlands’ history and has been in office since 2010.

The Dutch broadcaster NOS published an Ipsos poll that showed 60 per cent of voters wanted to express their views on the government and 46 per cent of them were against its policies.

As the Telegraph‘s report makes clear, the BBB owed its success to more than its opposition to the nitrogen rules, and (from what little I know about it) the party is not anti-green; it is merely paler green than its opponents. Voting for it was one way of signaling general discontent with the Rutte government. Nevertheless, that it was the vehicle chosen by so many Dutch voters to show their unhappiness means something.

The senate is the Netherlands’ upper legislative chamber. It has the power to block laws passed in the Dutch parliament’s lower house. In other words, it matters.

It will be interesting to see what happens next. In the meantime, politicians in France, Italy, and (above all) Germany who are concerned about what electric vehicles could mean for their auto sector and for those who work in and for it must be feeling a little nervous.

If not, they should.