A Contested Convention Would Be a Catastrophe for Democrats

If Democrats can talk Joe Biden into quitting the race — a very big if, and one utterly at odds with the man’s history, his current mental condition, and the desires of his family — they face a second dilemma: elevate the massively unpopular vice president Kamala Harris to the top of the ticket, or go back to the drawing board, which would require having a completely new ticket selected (or at least ratified) at the Democratic convention, which is presently scheduled to run August 19–22 in Chicago.

There’s a school of thought that says that a party suffering from a lack of enthusiasm and a sense that its leadership has stifled some factions of the party could actually benefit from a contested convention. It’s a dramatic spectacle, after all; it would be great television. Something very real would play out live in view of the public for the first time since the Republican convention in 1976 — which was followed by a dramatic rally that brought Gerald Ford back from a potential blowout to a close loss. Depressed activists could have their voices heard. A completely fresh ticket could be introduced to the public, distancing itself from the failures of the past four years.

That’s all true, as far as it goes. But a contested convention would be a catastrophe for Democrats. Here’s why:

First, dumping Harris from the ticket would be extremely politically painful. Biden, having to swallow his pride to step aside, would also have to accept his party’s admitting that he made a huge mistake in choosing her four years ago as his second-in-command and designated successor. There would be inevitable charges of racism and sexism in bypassing her. James Clyburn, the influential black South Carolina power broker in the House to whom Biden largely owes his nomination in 2020, has come out strongly against choosing anyone but Harris. Moreover, because Democrats throttled any prospect of a contested primary, Harris is the only nominee other than Biden who would have even a plausible claim to democratic legitimacy. At least she was elected vice president and was Biden’s running mate in the primaries. Harris partisans, as well as the disappointed partisans of any other contender, would have a major opening for sour grapes. And nobody would revel more in the Democrats picking their nominee in a convention without voter input than Donald Trump, who in 2016 branded conventions a rigged system when Colorado Republicans backed Ted Cruz at a state-caucus convention rather than via a primary.

Second, the legal and rules-based obstacles would be formidable. Convention rules for bypassing Biden are complicated and subject to disputes about their interpretation. Under campaign-fundraising laws, nobody but Biden or Harris would have unimpeded access to money already raised by the Biden-Harris campaign. Democrats have already committed to holding a virtual nomination vote by August 7 to comply with Ohio law, which requires a nominee by that date. Other state laws against replacing nominees could arguably block a new candidate in must-win swing states such as Wisconsin and Nevada. The Heritage Foundation’s Oversight Project has been preparing for months for a legal battle in case Democrats tried a last-minute switch. Turning to Harris would be by far the least complex of the non-Biden options.

Third, the campaign could be lost by the time a new nominee is selected. Trump would have the national stage effectively to himself, and even if that could be a double-edged sword for Republicans, the Democrats would get buried alive in fundraising and TV advertising in the interim. Then, they’d need to roll out and introduce their new ticket — and even with a likely Greek chorus of praise from the political press, that would hamper the necessary work of making this an election about Trump.

Fourth, the convention itself would be a nightmare, for reasons particular to this moment in Democratic Party politics. There is already mounting concern that, with the war in Gaza still ongoing, campuses mostly still out of session in the third week of August, and Chicago now run by a mayor who sides with the radicals, the city will be overrun with the worst menagerie of left-wing protesters, especially pro-Hamas protesters and the sorts of climate zealots who attack artwork and spray-paint Stonehenge. It already threatens to be 1968 on steroids. Now, imagine that these people are told that there is a particular building where the next potential commander in chief is being chosen. What would happen outside in the streets would make January 6 look like a New England town meeting by comparison. Democrats cannot expose their presidential-selection process to the pressure of their own side’s street cadres.

Maybe a contested convention would work — for a different party or a different year. But in 2024, Democrats will realistically have to swallow Harris if they can’t stomach Biden.