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A Case of Aggression in the ‘Gray Zone’?

An employee of pipeline operator Gasunie stands next to stored pipelines for an upcoming pipeline from Brunsbüttel LNG Terminal to the northern city of Hamburg, near Brunsbüttel, Germany, December 8, 2022. (Morris MacMatzen/Getty Images)

Writing the other day about various acts of sabotage under the Baltic Sea over the past few months, I had this to say:

A covert attack by unknown actors on a piece of (sometimes extraterritorial) infrastructure is a classic example of (to use the jargon) “gray zone” aggression, and a general promise of a military response is unlikely to be convincing enough to be a credible deterrent (the saboteurs will typically have long since left the scene). So, what to do?

Now there’s this news (via Politico):

German federal prosecutors have opened an investigation into a suspected case of sabotage after small holes were found in a liquefied natural gas pipeline under construction in the north of Germany.

Prosecutors have taken over an “investigation into the initial suspicion of anti-constitutional sabotage,” a spokeswoman for the Federal Public Prosecutor General told German public broadcaster NDR.

At least three ten-millimeter holes appeared to have been drilled at various places along the 55-kilometer-long pipeline, according to media reports. Gasunie, the company building the pipeline, first reported the holes attributable “to external interference” to police in November. . . . Germany has become increasingly reliant on LNG as it has moved to cut its dependence on natural gas from Russia following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Hmmm . . .

It’s certainly not impossible that the Russians or their proxies might have been involved in this.

Another possibility, of course, might be eco-fundamentalists.

A story worth watching.

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