Where Is the Lebanese Zelensky?

T he crisis in Lebanon is also an opportunity. But as of today, one would have to bet that Lebanese leaders will not take advantage of it.

The opportunity is to remove Lebanon from the control of Hezbollah and Iran. That control has existed at least since 2008, when Hezbollah took over. As an analyst at Chatham House put it:

In May 2008, however, an internal political dispute in Lebanon saw Hezbollah use its weapons against fellow Lebanese citizens. The Lebanese government at the time tried to dismiss the pro-Hezbollah head of airport security, Wafik Choucair, and dismantle Hezbollah’s telecommunications network, which operated without any state oversight. In response, Hezbollah forced a military takeover of Beirut, leading to a government crisis that was resolved with the formation of a new national unity administration in which Hezbollah and its allies had veto rights for the first time.

This was a reversal of the “Cedar Revolution” of 2005, when Lebanese citizens rose up in massive, peaceful demonstrations after the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri (on February 14 of that year) to demand that Syrian troops leave the country so that Lebanese could govern themselves democratically. Those 14,000 Syrian troops did leave, and elections were held; Hariri’s son Saad became leader of the largest political bloc in parliament.

But the interlude did not last. In July 2006, Hezbollah attacked across the border into Israel and the ensuing war lasted 34 days. In December 2006, Hezbollah and its allies started large street demonstrations to pressure parliament to give them veto power over government decisions. They boycotted parliament and delayed the selection of a new Lebanese president. Then in 2008, Hezbollah used its guns against fellow Lebanese to get what it wanted: veto power over any actions by the Lebanese state.

Since then, Lebanon has most often had both a president and a prime minister — though the presidency is vacant now because Hezbollah has prevented agreement on who would fill that post. But whether or not those positions were filled, the government did not have the final say; Hezbollah did. Always. And not through influence or persuasion, but rather through brute force.

When the Gaza war began on October 7, Hezbollah might have stayed out. But because it acts in the interests of Iran and not Lebanon, it attacked Israel. In the past few weeks, Israel has attacked back and both decimated and decapitated Hezbollah.

Thus the opportunity. But where are the Lebanese leaders stepping forward to take advantage of it? The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) have done nothing to assert the sovereignty of the state against a terrorist group, even though it was agreed in 2006 in U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 that only the LAF could be present in Lebanon’s south and that Hezbollah must disarm. And there have been no profiles in courage among civilian leaders. Neither Sunni nor Christian nor Druze leaders have stepped forward to demand that Hezbollah relinquish its control of the state. Hezbollah’s support base is the Shiite community, which is less than a third of Lebanon’s population. (And who knows how much of the Shiite population is pro-Hezbollah today?) But anti-Hezbollah political forces are missing in action.

There are two good excuses. First, there is a war on. But that war will end faster if Lebanese, and the LAF, act to regain their sovereignty and start demanding and negotiating for a new Lebanon. Second, there is of course fear. Hezbollah may be on the run, but it has a vast arsenal and has always been willing to kill politicians, journalists, and others who oppose it.

Still, where is the Lebanese Zelensky willing to stand up for his nation’s sovereignty? Where is the group of Lebanese leaders willing, arm in arm, to speak up and rally citizens so that the nation doesn’t lose its opportunity to get out from under Iranian control and rebuild? It would be nice to think that they will speak out and rally mass demonstrations, the day there is a cease-fire. But is that true? Or will the habit of deference to Iran and Hezbollah continue?

Lebanon has been under Hezbollah’s influence for decades and completely under its thumb at least since 2008. Now there is a real chance to escape — if Lebanese leaders, working together with courage, determination, and European and U.S. support, act. So far, they seem unwilling or unable to do so.