The vice president needs a debate much more than Trump does.
The vice president needs a debate much more than Trump does.
W hile the media are reporting that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will debate on September 10, the truth is that they continue to talk past each other when scheduling their faceoffs. Trump’s slide in the polls is putting some pressure on him to agree to Harris’s and the media’s terms quickly. Trump should resist that pressure because time is on his side.
Debates usually happen only in contested races whose outcome is in doubt. That makes sense: Why should someone who’s guaranteed to win give their opponent a chance to shine, or risk making a fatal mistake?
This reason alone suggests the two will face off at some point. Nobody thinks either candidate has, or will have, this race in the bag. The real question, then, is whether Harris or Trump will have the upper hand in setting the frame in which the confrontation occurs.
Trump is trying to gain that leverage by proposing a clear series of debates on different channels. It’s crucial to understand this when deciphering Trump’s gambit.
He insists so far that the first debate occur on September 4 on Fox News. That’s obviously not what Harris wants, so he’s sweetened the pot by agreeing to debate on ABC on September 10, as she wants. He’s also proposed a third debate on NBC later that month.
Harris, of course, is pushing back and refusing to take Trump’s offer to debate on September 4 on Fox, while saying he has agreed to debate on September 10. That decision is obvious, too. Why should Harris go into the lion’s den early in the race? That is inviting a disaster when she is still trying to create a firmly positive impression for herself.
This seems to be a case of the immovable object meeting the irresistible force, but some think Trump will soon drop his Fox demand and fall into line. So why do I think Trump will prevail in this battle of wills?
Simple: Harris needs the debate much more than Trump does — if Trump holds out.
Harris so far has only experienced the sugar high of a high profile, media-abetted positive roll-out. She probably thinks this will go on much longer, allowing her to build a significant polling lead and dictate the terms of the campaign.
She’s clearly hoping Trump fears the same thing and is relying on that and media pressure to compel Trump to agree to debate in her arena with her preferred questioners. But that fear is misplaced.
Trump is already a known commodity. Love him, as many do, or hate him, as many others do, he has already made a clear impression.
Harris, on the one hand, needs to draw a direct contrast with Trump to emerge as a capable competitor. That’s the position every challenger finds themself in, and even though she’s the vice president, Harris is effectively the challenger in this contest.
Without a debate, Harris can try to land verbal punches all she wants but she won’t get the face-to-face showdown that alone can demonstrate she’s tough enough to lead.
Trump, on the other hand, is already viewed as tough and in command. His foes don’t doubt that; they’re just terrified of where he would lead the country. Trump, then, can lob grenades at Harris non-stop to put her off her game.
He admittedly hasn’t done well so far, but there’s plenty of time for him to find his groove. He usually does, and constantly peppering her with attacks from every direction will eventually pay off. Something will stick; better yet for him, something will make her snap. And when it does, Trump will start to gain in the polls.
That’s when Trump starts to gain leverage, something he lacks now.
Once this happens, Harris will want a debate even more. It’s one thing to stick to your negotiating ground when you’re riding high. It’s another when Election Day is approaching and you still haven’t put your opponent away.
Trump should know this. He always seeks leverage on his opponent, possessing something they want that he can give them if only they make a deal. He should therefore hold out until Harris is so desperate that she’ll agree to a debate format and host she would have dismissed out of hand weeks earlier.
Early voting should not change Trump’s calculus. Among the six swing states, only Pennsylvania allows early voting before October 9. Voters there can vote as early as September 16, but data from 2022 show the overwhelming majority waited until about three weeks before the election to begin casting their ballots.
Nothing is final until it’s final. But if it’s October 1 and it’s still essentially a tie, someone’s got to veer away in this game of political chicken. Bet on Harris to blink, and Trump to reap the rewards.