What to Expect in the Second Round of France’s Elections

I t appears that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party will not come close to winning an absolute majority of seats in Sunday’s French legislative election. That doesn’t mean that France has stemmed the populist tide or has a clear path forward to a workable government.

National Rally finished first in last week’s first round of voting, taking 33.5 percent of the vote. It or its allies lead in 297 of the nation’s 577 districts, slightly more than half of the total. If France were America, with only one round of voting, National Rally’s Jordan Bardella would become prime minister.

It’s not, however, and that fact allows National Rally’s opponents to team up on it in the second-round runoffs. French law allows candidates who qualify for the runoffs to withdraw, and over 200 did so to maximize their parties’ chance of winning. President Macron has called for supporters of his centrist coalition to back any candidate opposing National Rally. The leaders of the multiparty leftist alliance, the New Popular Front, have done likewise, while the leaders of the center-right Republicans have issued no recommendations for their voters.

This combination of unnatural allies means that National Rally will lose many of the runoffs. Polls estimate that the party will win between 170 and 250 seats, with roughly 210–220 emerging as the midpoint. My own seat-by-seat estimate gives National Rally 192 seats, with another 69 as toss-ups, but leaning against it. If this transpires, the party will be the largest single legislative faction but will be well short of an absolute majority.

That doesn’t end the calculations, however. One party in the leftist coalition, Jean Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise (France Unbowed), has also been attacked by Macron and Republican leaders as “extreme.” Melenchon wants to become prime minister, but even leaders in his New Popular Front say that is not guaranteed.

This obstacle means trouble if France Unbowed and National Rally win a combined majority. The two populist parties despise one another and won’t form a government together, but a populist majority would force the others to deal with one of the two elements they have loudly decried.

There’s a fair chance that will happen. An Ipsos poll estimates that France Unbowed will win between 58 and 68 seats. I estimate it will win 70, with another 21 possible seats if its candidates win all of the toss-ups they are contesting. If National Rally wins 210 and France Unbowed wins 80, they will call the shots in the National Assembly.

The likeliest scenario under this circumstance is that a Socialist or Green Party leader would become prime minister in a coalition government with Macron’s centrist alliance. But this would be a seven-party coalition with partners ranging from the center-right Horizons party to the far-left France Unbowed. It would agree on little other than keeping National Rally out of power. Chaos is as likely to follow this coalition of strange bedfellows as anything else.

Difficulties compound if National Rally wins closer to the high end of its estimated range. Suppose it wins 240 seats rather than the 210 the polls suggest. Most of those would come at the expense of the centrists or the Left, as National Rally should lose most of the runoffs it has versus the Republicans. This outcome would mean National Rally and the Republicans would have a majority between them.

The Republican leadership will not want this to happen. National Rally has almost destroyed it over the past seven years by stealing Republican voters en masse and forcing others to back Macron as a counterweight. Republican long-term interests are best served by casting the party as the responsible opposition to Macron and the Left. That is well served if the unwieldy seven-party coalition takes power. Those hopes are dashed if the party has to be part of a governing coalition.

France’s constitution throws yet another obstacle in the path toward a functioning government. The Assembly can be dissolved only once per year, and there is no provision for early elections if a government cannot be formed. These squabbling factions have to live with one another for at least that time, giving National Rally ample targets to aim at from the opposition benches.

They will take those shots, if it comes to that, with a record-high stockpile of ammunition thanks to France’s public partisan financing law. Parties receive 1.42 euros per vote received in the first round, plus over 37,000 euros each year for every seat they hold. National Rally’s record-high performance in 2022 — 89 seats and 4.2 million votes — gave it more money than it had ever had before. Winning 9.4 million votes and 210 seats will arm it to the hilt.

National Rally will surely be disappointed if it doesn’t win a majority, but it has still emerged as France’s leading political force. The disunity of its fractured opposition and its enhanced resources mean that time is on its side.