The Virginia governor would be a great pick.
The Virginia governor would be a great pick.
T he dark horse may be the strongest horse.
Glenn Youngkin is sitting at the outer edge of Trump VP speculation. You wouldn’t give him particularly high odds (J. D. Vance is probably the front-runner at this point), but there’s always a chance of Trump pulling a surprise, and the term-limited Virginia governor would be a welcome one.
A Youngkin pick works on multiple levels.
He has some of the benefits of Nikki Haley in terms of suburban appeal and reaching the segment of Republicans or former Republicans resistant to the former president, without being hateful to Trump and his supporters. He obviously didn’t run against Trump, so he has none of the history and baggage of Haley, or even of Marco Rubio.
Another way to look at it is that Youngkin is as safe as Doug Burgum, while actually bringing some potential political upside.
None of the three names we’ve heard the most about in the VP discussion directly expand or solidify the electoral map. Neither Ohio, Florida, nor North Dakota is in play, but Virginia could be.
The states where, to this point, Biden has held up best and that are absolutely essential to his electoral map are Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Youngkin is not a Rust Belt guy, but all of those states have suburbs, and any marginal help in the suburbs could make a difference in a narrow race.
Even if Youngkin can’t help there, if Trump wins Virginia it creates plausible electoral maps where he can get to 270 without needing Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.
Youngkin is a good fit in other ways.
He’s a post-Trump Republican who was comfortable running on cultural issues — especially those related to education — during his 2021 gubernatorial campaign, but he’s obviously not wild-eyed. Unlike the other VP names, he’s achieved success in a purplish-to-blue state where it’s hard for a conservative to thrive, not a red state where it’s hard for a conservative to mess it up.
He’s a talented politician who looks the part, but there’s no danger of him overshadowing Trump.
As a successful businessman with executive experience, he’s seasoned and feels like an adult. He’s unlikely to melt under the spotlight during a national campaign and would meet the Ready on Day One test.
Donors will like him, which shouldn’t be an overwhelming factor, but matters.
Trump has, to some extent, positioned himself to the center, signaling that he doesn’t want to fight on abortion and dumping on the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025. Youngkin would be a choice consistent with this tack. He’s quite conservative, but doesn’t scare the horses.
Finally, it’d be a mistake for Trump to begin to consider the election a gimme. Joe Biden has been hurt by the last two weeks, but it still could be a close race and Trump should want to play every card, within reason, that makes it more likely he’ll win.
And Youngkin passes this, most important, test.