Are the U.S. and NATO Serious about Deterring Russian Aggression?

M y question was simple: Had the Western European countries been meeting the NATO defense-spending obligation of at least 2 percent of GDP, would Vladimir Putin have launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, or would our allies’ strong military commitment have given him increased pause?

It was April 2024, and before the House Armed Services Committee sat General Christopher Cavoli, the head of U.S. European Command, who is widely considered to be our nation’s foremost expert on military operations in Europe. In response to my question, General Cavoli was honest: “Sure, it would have given Putin pause.”

At yesterday’s NATO summit in Washington, D.C., President Biden claimed that the alliance is “stronger than it’s ever been.” Some of our allies have started to invest more in their defense since Russian soldiers reappeared on NATO’s doorstep, but higher levels of defense spending should have been the norm for the past three decades. Can Biden say for certain that NATO is the strongest it has ever been after the 2022 Russian invasion of and ongoing war in Ukraine?

We cannot know if the war would have started had countries such as Germany, France, Spain, and Italy altered course after Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea and invested robustly in their defense. However, it’s clear that these countries’ failure to meet NATO’s defense-spending threshold emboldened Putin. The Russian leader looked west and did not see legitimate conventional deterrence from Europe’s largest nations. Simply put, most European countries, including many of the world’s strongest economies, didn’t value hard power. They foolishly believed that large-scale conventional European conflict was a relic of the past.

Even worse, in the face of Russia’s use of hard power in Crimea in 2014, these nations, who once boasted some of the strongest militaries on the planet, opted to quickly acquiesce to Russian aggression for fear of escalation. Instead of countering Putin by sending lethal arms to Ukraine, most European countries chose to send humanitarian aid. That is, they chose borderline apologetic appeasement over a firm and principled united front against unprovoked aggression.

The U.S. was not immune to this malaise, either, as President Obama chose to send Meals Ready to Eat and medical equipment rather than artillery, Javelins, and tanks. This “butter over guns” approach prevented the Ukrainian military from mounting an effective defense in Crimea (one could say, at least, that Ukrainian soldiers were being shelled on a full stomach). The West failed to show the strength and resolve that it had displayed to win the Cold War — a failure that stuck with Putin and our other adversaries.

Seven years later, another seismic event occurred that further eroded the credibility of the U.S. on the world stage. In the late summer of 2021, after the U.S. military consolidated down to one base in Afghanistan, the Taliban raced across the country, easily defeating Afghan security forces. The force we had trained for 20 years melted away without U.S. logistical support and air power. Despite Biden’s assurances, the Afghan military and government quickly collapsed, forcing the U.S. military to absurdly rely on the Taliban for security at the Kabul International Airport. Of course, this led to the tragic loss of 13 U.S. Marines and soldiers tasked with covering the withdrawal.

There is no doubt that the botched Afghanistan withdrawal was one of the biggest, if not the biggest, geopolitical disasters in U.S. history. In the tone-deaf manner we have come to expect, the president and secretary of defense touted our surrender as a great success. Our adversaries, namely Russia and China, took note and looked on with glee as the door opened to their own nefarious endeavors.

Five months after the final Air Force plane lifted off from Kabul, Putin ordered his military to move west, launching the most devastating land invasion in Europe since World War II. The West was bereft of any course of action to deter Putin. For decades, much of Europe had simply wished war away, ignoring the reality that peace is the aberration and conflict is, unfortunately, the norm. War, namely great-power war, can be deterred only through military strength and an emphasis on developing innovative tools and strategy.

Since Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, it’s encouraging to see that many European countries, specifically in the east, such as Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states, have made significant investments in their militaries. Still, several NATO allies, such as Spain and Canada, continue to fall short of NATO’s defense-spending requirements. For there to be any lasting peace after the conflict in Eastern Europe, our allies, particularly those with the greatest economic potential, must value and invest in hard power. Should they continue on the same path of naïveté and appeasement, war will certainly be their future, yielding tragic and terrible results for them and the free world.