Modi’s Weak Victory Means India’s Democracy Is Strong

T his week, India concluded humanity’s largest democratic experiment. 640 million Indians in a country spanning 28 states and over 1.2 million square miles, of all races and religions, freely voted. Over the course of 44 days, sometimes in heat approaching 120 degrees, Indian citizens stood in lines and made their voices heard. India’s universal voter ID assures that every vote is electronic and secured; trust in its democracy has never been higher. There are no serious claims of rigged elections or vote suppression.

If you are a Westerner, however, you might be surprised by these facts. For the past several years, Western media and some political groups have repeated the story that incumbent prime minister Narendra Modi is a growing autocrat suppressing the rights of millions of Indians. The truth is much more nuanced and complicated, as most facts in India often are.

Modi has been a flawed leader from the beginning. Long before becoming prime minister, he had been linked to rhetoric and violence against Muslims. He has certainly grown the power of the central government and has favored laws that push the boundaries of acceptability for secular India.

At the same time, Modi remains widely popular. Polls earlier this year showed his approval rating at over 70 percent. Economic indicators are all at historic highs, the country is becoming wealthier and more middle-class, and foreign investment in the country is peaking. Furthermore, India has grown its status on the world stage, and is slowly being accepted as a great power.

The results of the election show the complicated reality of Indian democracy. It has always been chaotic, sometimes dangerously so, with movements led by charismatic leaders who run up against the limits of Indian politics and then often are rejected by the same electorate that loved them a few short years earlier.

So it wasn’t a surprise that, at the conclusion of this year’s elections, Modi and his BJP party lost power in the parliament, falling short of an absolute majority. Modi’s party won 240 seats, a net loss of 63. Modi will still be prime minister, as his BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) — which won 293 seats, enough to push past the majority mark of 272 — will form the new government on Saturday. The opposition INDIA coalition, led by the Congress Party, gained seats across the board, for 234 total (a net gain of 47).

What does this tell us about Indian democracy in the larger sense?

First and foremost, it tells us that Modi is not anywhere near the authoritarian leader that some Westerners want to believe. Such a massive loss of seats dramatically reduces his power base in the parliament. Modi accepted the losses with honesty and humility, which is a far cry from what a dictator would do. Because of these losses, he will have to moderate his policies to please many in his Allied party coalition. Opposition voices in India remain quite powerful, could successfully counter Modi’s message, and clearly were not being oppressed, as some Western experts have complained.

The economy is at the root of BJP’s failure this election cycle. Although it is growing briskly and the stock market is surging, many average Indians feel left behind. Despite India’s impressive economic growth of more than 8 percent annually, distress among rural populations has increased as incomes have fallen amid rising food prices. Despite India’s massive recent modernization, more than 900 million people in the country still live in rural areas, and they vote at very high rates.

The unemployment rate in India rose to 8.1 percent in April from 7.4 percent in March, compared with around 6 percent before the Covid-19 pandemic. Modi first came to power in 2014 on the promise of creating 20 million jobs a year but has fallen far short of that. Even more damaging to the BJP is the fact that government estimates for the latest January–March quarter show that the urban unemployment rate in the 15–29 age group increased to 17 percent, from 16.5 percent in the prior quarter. Young voters came out heavily against the BJP this cycle.

Modi was also given a symbolic bloody nose because of his borderline virulent and sometimes outrageous rhetoric against Indian Muslims. As a member of the Hindu-nationalist movement, Modi tried to motivate voters who are biased against Muslims, especially when polls showed his party’s lagging enthusiasm. This completely backfired. Muslims turned out in high numbers, especially in northern states where the BJP is traditionally the strongest. This caused massive losses in numerous northern states, most prominently in Uttar Pradesh.

Uttar Pradesh is a state governed by the BJP since 2017. As India’s most populous state, with more than 240 million people, it has always been pivotal to holding power in parliament. In 2019, Modi’s NDA won 64 seats from the state. But the 2024 outcome looks very different, with the INDIA coalition winning 43 seats. This shift was heavily driven by Muslim-voter turnout.

Perhaps the most embarrassing of these losses occurred in the Faizabad constituency, which is home to the Ram temple in Ayodhya. The temple has been a focal point of Modi’s efforts this year. The temple — built on the ruins of the Babri mosque, which was demolished by a Hindu mob in 1992 — was consecrated and celebrated by Modi. He highlighted its reconstruction as a historic moment for Hindutva (‘Hindu’ India). Massive celebrations took place across the country, including parades and fireworks. Those celebrations not only did not help BJP in the district but apparently were rejected by the local populace.

So what are the repercussions of this weak electoral win? Modi will have to moderate many of his social policies, especially regarding Muslims. He will have to delay or even abandon the fulfillment of promises such as a uniform civil code for all religions (opposed by some Muslims) and simultaneous state and national elections, and prioritize economic policies to help the poor and rural communities.

Modi remains very popular, and his support among the rich elites and middle classes is still strong. Showing how popular he is among the rich, the day after the election results were made public, the Indian Stock Exchange lost almost $400 billion in value because of fears that his very successful pro-growth policies would have to be rolled back.

At the same time, the voting results show that Muslims have less to panic about than many outsiders feared. Hindu Nationalism largely failed as an election issue. The most vicious anti-Muslim rhetoric was in Uttar Pradesh, including in cities like Ayodhya where the grand Ram temple was built. The BJP universally suffered defeats in these regions. This is why members of the Congress Party, led by Rahul Gandhi (son of Rajiv Gandhi, the heir apparent to the Jawaharlal Nehru / Indira Gandhi family legacy), celebrated: The election is a sign that Indian pluralism doesn’t face the existential danger from the Hindu Nationalist movement that some feared.

India’s secular democracy is alive and well. Modi remains popular but has been proven not to be invincible. India still respects the rights of minorities and opposition voices that speak out for their causes. The ultimate message Indian voters sent this year is quite clear: Indian democracy remains healthy and vibrant, although imperfect. And that message is one the world should accept happily.