Let’s not pretend otherwise.
Let’s not pretend otherwise.
A lvin Bragg won. He triumphed. He conquered. He emerged victorious. Love Trump or hate Trump, there is little to be gained by pretending otherwise. Like gravity or potassium or the Alps, Bragg’s achievement is now a fact.
How else might one characterize the events of the last few years? In 2022, having strongly implied that he would use his office to target Donald Trump, Bragg easily won election as the new Manhattan DA. After a brief loss of nerve, during which he temporarily shut down his preordained investigation, the news that Donald Trump intended to run for president for a third time inspired Bragg to go for broke. From there on out, he prevailed in every way. First, Bragg contrived a legal argument that, while capricious and absurd, allowed him to get past every single one of the hurdles that he faced, be it the lack of a felony, the statute of limitations, the jurisdictional challenge, or the chronological problem that is inherent in accusing someone of taking an action in 2017 to effect an outcome in 2016; next, he got that legal argument past a complaisant judge; and, finally, he persuaded a jury to go along with him. That none of this should have happened is immaterial, as is the high chance that the whole kit and caboodle will be overturned on appeal. Bragg set out to twist the law into the words “Donald Trump is a convicted felon,” and he succeeded in that endeavor.
I do not know whether Bragg’s victory will prove fatal to Donald Trump’s campaign. I do know, however, that Bragg and his confederates are convinced that getting Trump on something —anything — prior to the election was a prerequisite for Joe Biden’s re-election chances. As other candidates might hope to check off a tangible accomplishment prior to a plebiscite — 3 percent growth! Inflation down to the historical average! The hostages safely returned! — the Biden campaign has been desperate to convict Trump so that it can parry any accusations of incompetence, senility, or malice with the rejoinder that its opponent is officially a criminal. Courtesy of Alvin Bragg, Team Biden has achieved that. In one way or another, Trump’s conviction will aid the White House.
How much? That remains to be seen. For what little they are worth, the early comparative polls seem to suggest that the damage might range between one and two points — and, I need not remind you, Donald Trump is going to need every point he can get. Despite the overconfidence of the partisans, this year’s race is not going to be a 1972 or 1984 — or even a 1996 or 2008. It is going to be a grind. The fight for the Senate will be a grind. The fight for the House will be a grind. The presidential election will be the grind to end all grinds. Few Americans like either of the candidates whom the major parties have chosen, and, as a result, whoever wins will win because he was infinitesimally less revolting to the voters than the other guy. I am no political operator, but I feel comfortable enough in my analytical skills to contend that, if one had a choice, neither candidate would happily add “I’m a convicted felon!” to his brief.
Among many of those who are outraged by Bragg’s conduct there exists an almost childlike belief that, because his gains were ill-gotten, they will inevitably trigger some karmic rebalancing. “Bragg just handed Trump the election,” I’m told. “You can already sense that they know they made a mistake,” insist others. Can you? Because I can’t. One of the reasons that I call myself a conservative is that I do not believe that there is some ineluctable link between bad behavior and harsh consequences. On the contrary: Bad people do bad things and get away with it every day of the week. In 2021, Donald Trump tried to rewrite the Twelfth Amendment and the 1876 Electoral Count Act to stay in power, and, in 2024, the Republican Party gleefully renominated him for president. If there really were some cosmic Judge Judy with both hands placed firmly on the seesaw, one might have expected a different outcome. So it is here. Alvin Bragg did a bad thing in New York. But it does not follow from this that he will pay a price for it, or that, in her infinite wisdom, Mom will come in from the next room to make him share his cookies.