Welcome to a truly hatefully frigid night here in the midwest, where Iowans are about to cast the first ballots of the 2024 cycle for the Republican presidential nomination. In Des Moines and thereabouts it’s set to feel like -45 degrees with the wind chill. Every story you’re reading about the IA caucuses is forefronting this fact, and as a guy living not far away in Chicago, let me say: there is a good reason for it. (It’s so cold here in the city tonight that I have half a mind to hit up my local Subway and stage a hate crime.)
Voter turnout is basically impossible to model, although certain things like the Selzer/NBC poll have given me a set of priors heading into the night: Trump’s supporters are numerically large AND particularly fervid in their support, whereas Haley’s are alarmingly noncommittal. I read Audrey’s note below about the possibility of Vivek Ramaswamy overperforming on the night with interest, but my best guess for now is Trump takes around 50% of the vote, while DeSantis overperforms his polling numbers and edges out Haley, though not in a way to seriously threaten or approach Trump’s margins.
Now: Watch me be wrong about all of this.
We’ve seen all the polls, we’ve heard all the predictions, we’ve heard the rumors (“Trump's going to announce a Trump-Haley ticket soon!”), the speculation about the weather, about Democratic crossover voters, and any other possible last-minute variable. (That Bills-Steelers game doesn’t look that competitive at this moment.) The only thing left is the voting at the caucus meetings. Let’s get this thing started.
All right, NR’s Iowa GOP caucus night liveblog starts … now. We’ve got Audrey Fahlberg in Iowa, reporting the latest from the scene.
NR’s best-in-the-business writers will be weighing in here with analysis all night. And in case you missed it, you can follow along here for live results and more at our new election page. Phil Klein has the details.
Buckle up
Des Moines—Might sound crazy to some, but hearing from a lot of Republicans on the ground in Iowa—especially Trump-leaning voters—that biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy will out-perform expectations in tonight’s first-in-the-nation caucuses given how much time he’s spent in the state. That could explain the Trump campaign team’s decision to start viciously attacking him this week on social media. Earlier this week the former president said on Truth Social that a vote for Ramaswamy is a “wasted” vote.
“I am impressed with Vivek. I think he’s gonna surprise people,” West Des Moines resident Jim Turner told National Review outside of Trump’s Indianola commit to caucus event Sunday afternoon.
The latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey had Ramaswamy polling at 8 percent among likely Republican caucus-goers.