Didn’t take long; at 8:30 p.m. Eastern time, CNN projects Donald Trump the winner of the Iowa Republican caucus. Jake Tapper notes, “this is the earliest I can remember calling a winner.”
The first results are starting to trickle in from Iowa, which you can follow on our election page. Not surprisingly, they show Trump way ahead, with 67.5 percent — though with only a few hundred reported so far. Keep refreshing here.
Waukee, Iowa—A senior adviser for Florida governor Ron DeSantis is the first surrogate to speak at tonight’s caucus in Sugar Creek Elementary School. Says the country needs a candidate who can immediately serve for eight years. Jokes that this is the first time he’s seen snow!
Waukee, Iowa—Brent Baedke told National Review ahead of tonight’s caucus that he’s “pretty much” decided on Florida governor Ron DeSantis. “There’s a few I don’t mind but I think I’m going for him right now.”
Why is he on the fence? “I’m not sure if he’d have the support nationwide to win the primary. So I question him just because of that. I think he’d be a great president,” Baedke says.
He described the three other highest-polling candidates in these terms: “Ramaswamy just seems like another Trump but younger, doesn’t really have the support behind him,” he said. “Haley just — not fully aligned with her politics and decisions on things. I do like Trump policy-wise, but his rhetoric I’m not a big fan of.”
Brief reminder that you and I, well-informed National Review-reading analytical types, can barely begin to comprehend how a lot of average people make political decisions.
Waukee, Iowa—One couple tells National Review they plan to caucus for former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, citing her strong record on foreign policy.
“We need somebody who’s very astute on foreign problems,” says Richard Peterson, a self-identified “former Chris Christie guy” who appreciates Haley’s previous experience serving as U.N. ambassador.
His wife, Barbara Peterson, sees the race in simpler terms. “It’s not Trump,” she says. “He’s nails on a chalkboard for me. He’s so full of himself and so bully-ish. I see the name and I almost get nauseous.”
We’ve seen candidates lose Iowa and win the nomination (the last three GOP nominees in competitive years — 2008, 2012, and 2016 — failed to win Iowa). New Hampshire, on the other hand, voted for the candidate who won each of those years. This year especially, though, the Trump challengers have to be looking at South Carolina. It’s Haley’s home state, and it’s near the state DeSantis currently governs. Yet neither of them are even close to Trump in polls there. That would really be the chance to flip the script on Trump’s inevitability. The hope for their campaigns has to be that strong results in Iowa and New Hampshire give them some momentum going into South Carolina. But as I noted before, the remarkable thing about this primary season so far is how constant things have been.
Waukee, Iowa—A packed house inside the gymnasium of Sugar Creek Elementary School this evening for tonight’s first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus. Wisconsin Representative Derrick Van Orden, who endorsed former President Donald Trump onstage at his event in Indianola Sunday afternoon, is here shaking hands with voters.
More entrance polling via NBC News: The biggest issue for Republican caucus-goers tonight is immigration, which beats out all competing issues at 37 percent. The economy is the top issue for 36 percent. Abortion and foreign policy are tied at 11 percent. Only 10 percent of caucus-goers cite electability – beating Joe Biden in November – as their primary concern.
@nrothman I find it surprising that the proportion of voters who accept the “MAGA movement” label is so much lower than the proportions who believe Biden’s election was illegitimate or that convicted Trump should still be president. I wonder if it’s just Trump supporters who aren’t “joiners” and don’t like the idea of movements in general.