My favorite moments in live coverage of Republican politics on cable news comes when the anchors stop themselves to address the Democrats they hear in their own heads. For example, after noting that Donald Trump was outperforming his 2016 standing in Cedar Rapids, CNN analyst John King stopped what he was doing to insist that he was not, in fact, giving Trump a boost. Of course, he wasn’t – he was merely describing what the evidence of his own eyes led him to conclude. And yet, in his mind’s eye, he could see his social media mentions blowing up with discontented Democrats insisting that he had somehow put his thumb on the electoral scales. It’s an odd phenomenon – one that is in no way limited to John King. But it’s entertaining, nonetheless.
Associated Press policy: “Only when AP is fully confident a race has been won – defined most simply as the moment a trailing candidate no longer has a path to victory – will we make a call.” Tonight the AP called the Iowa caucus in favor of Trump thirty minutes after the doors closed, but before all votes were cast. Now, I don’t think the AP call will alter the outcome in any significant manner, but… boy, that policy does not sound like what happened here, does it?
Trump is a truly remarkable political phenomenon, one of the most extraordinary in the history of modern American politics. Whether he wins or loses in November (assuming he wins the nomination) will obviously matter in the ultimate judgment about his political potency. But simply having this kind of hold on a major political party is incredible enough.
I’ll be honest. Going into tonight I was expecting Trump to win, Nikki Haley to show, and Ron DeSantis to merely place. The only result that I was interested in was whether combined Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis polled higher than Trump in the caucuses. Not that I think such a result would indicate that there is an anti-Trump majority waiting to be built. But just as an overall sign about the lack of enthusiasm for semi-incumbent Trump.
Even if DeSantis finishes in second with more than 20 percent, it‘s hard to see any path going forward for him. Where is he going to win? New Hampshire? South Carolina? Super Tuesday?
The entrance polling in Iowa suggests that caucus-goers said the quality they were looking for most in their candidate was values that reflected their own. Trump voters, DeSantis supporters, and Haley backers all listed that as their top quality – even though their preferred candidate’s values seem so at odds with the values evinced by the other candidates in the race. Iowa’s voters privileged that over seemingly more important factors like whether the candidate can beat Joe Biden in the general election. The story of 2024 so far is the ongoing cold cultural civil conflict within the Republican Party. Actually competing for high office seems like a secondary consideration.
I disagree that the early call is harmless. Iowa isn’t a winner-take-all state. The margins actually affect delegate allocations. It’s indefensible to declare a winner in that situation before all votes are cast.
Haley strongest among moderates and people with advanced degrees—not a formula for success in a Republican nomination fight.
The media should not pretend it doesn’t know who a winner will be because it hurts other campaigns’ feelings. Calling a race where the anticipated margin between first and second is somewhere between 10 and 30 points is not a difficult decision. It’s like calling Hawaii for a Democrat or Wyoming for a Republican in a general election. The purpose of a race call is to say which candidate will get the most votes. Trump will get the most votes in Iowa tonight. There’s no reason to pretend that isn’t a fact, or delay saying it publicly until an undetermined point in the future.
Based on my reading of entrance polls and what very little we have in terms of hard results, I would expect the race for second between DeSantis and Haley to be close. But not sure what practical difference it makes given that they are each likely to be over 30 points behind.