The stakes feel higher for Haley. Not only is she increasingly getting taken seriously as the third real contender, she has done so mainly on the strength of her prior debate performances. But she can only get so far clowning on Vivek Ramaswamy. She, too, will be pressed to punch up instead of down.
One of the questions to watch tonight is whether Ron DeSantis changes his strategy. In prior debates, DeSantis has mostly stuck to delivering his own positive message relentlessly, rather than engaging much with his opponents on the stage – or the big, looming opponent offstage. With the stage down to five candidates, it may behoove him to turn his guns on Nikki Haley, and make a stronger case against Trump. In particular, the aftermath of yesterday’s dismal Election Day ought to be tailor-made for DeSantis to emphasize his “culture of losing” argument.