‘We want to be a normal country again,’ but the Peronistas are standing in the way.
‘We want to be a normal country again,’ but the Peronistas are standing in the way.
Buenos Aires — Argentina is a beautiful and charming country filled with people eager to show it off to visitors. But even they admit that, economically, they feel they are living in a Twilight Zone episode that never ends. A lot of them hope that Sunday’s election will usher in real change and put the nation “on the path to becoming a normal country,” in the words of the Acton Institute’s Alex Chafuen, an economist from Argentina.
The economy is likely to shrink 2.5 percent during 2023, while inflation is expected to hit 200 percent by the end of the year. More than 40 percent of the population is classified as living in poverty. Argentina has defaulted on its international sovereign debt three times in the past 20 years, and this week its unreliability prompted its neighbors Bolivia and Paraguay to stop shipments of bananas and pineapples. “Yes, we really have no bananas today,” Josh Mills, an American businessman in Argentina, quipped to me.
A hundred years ago, Argentina was one of the six wealthiest countries in the world. Now it ranks 66th, below Mexico and just above Russia. The slide began in 1946 when Juan Perón and his wife Evita took over the country. Joseph Humire of the Heritage Foundation recently summarized their reign:
In addition to giving sanctuary to Nazis, together the couple trashed the Argentine economy and eroded the country’s future by expanding the power of labor unions, creating lavish welfare programs, engaging in massive deficit spending, and introducing a form of “corporate socialism” that put Argentina on a path toward cronyism that continues today.
The heirs of Juan and Evita remain in charge today, since the Peronist coalition has won ten of the last 13 elections. Last year, Christina Kirchner was convicted on charges of stealing $1 billion from the public-works budget while she was president from 2007 to 2015. Currently Argentina’s vice president, she may face jail time if the Peronist coalition loses Sunday’s election.
The two contenders are Sergio Massa, the economy minister in the Peronist government who has presided over the hyperinflation here that prompts everyone to spend their local pesos as soon as they get them, and Javier Milei, a staunchly libertarian economist who entered politics only three years ago.
Milei has become a TV phenomenon with his foulmouthed attacks on the ruling class of Argentina and for his wild hair style — which he says he styles with Adam Smith’s invisible hand. A former goalkeeper in a local soccer team and a singer in a Rolling Stones cover band, he has mastered the art of getting public attention.
Normally, a candidate presiding over such a disastrous economy would be expected to lose, but Massa has opened the public coffers to buy votes and mobilize unions to strong-arm their members to vote for him. Milei promises to dollarize the economy, and his habit of brandishing a chainsaw at rallies to demonstrate how he would cut the budget have fueled a “fear campaign” against him. Signs in the public subways warn, “A train ticket under Massa: 56 pesos; a train ticket under Milei: 1,100 pesos.”
Milei responds that the country will suffer a final crash if Massa continues the statist quo. Only 6.2 million Argentines work in the formal private sector and pay the taxes to subsidize the almost 20 million people who are public workers or pensioners or who get some form of public subsidies.
“The country will almost surely run out of cash and suffer a hyper-inflation or a hyper-recession, followed by the Kirchner government’s traditional cop-out of blaming the International Monetary Fund for its self-inflicted economic disaster,” Andres Oppenheimer, an Argentine-born journalist who writes for the Miami Herald, said earlier this week.
Of course, left-wing allies of Massa at home and abroad are spreading stories that Milei would be a threat to democracy. Catholic priests are saying that his years-old insults of Pope Francis on TV would prevent a papal visit next year. (Milei has apologized for them during the campaign.) Mexican president López Obrador has openly called Milei a “fascist.”
The reality is that it’s Peronism that has badly damaged Argentina’s institutions and rule of law over the past 80 years, and that its continuation in power would further undermine democracy. James Neilson, the former editor of the English-language Buenos Aires Herald and a journalist for more than 50 years in Argentina, noted yesterday:
Massa himself looks even more dangerous than the on occasion fiery libertarian. If in power, he would have no qualms when it comes to mobilizing the trade union heavies who openly support him, as well as the cops, the Armed Forces and clandestine intelligence organizations which already supply him dirt to throw at his critics, which, as things stand, is something Milei would be unable to do.
Perhaps the biggest irony of this election is that, win or lose, it appears that Peronism is losing its claim to represent the poor and working class. A study by the Taquion consulting firm found that two-thirds of Milei’s voters were younger than 43. The vast majority of them (67 percent) belong to the lowest socio-economic level. “Broadly speaking, Milei is connecting with younger people who are poor, working informally and/or studying,” Agustino Fontevecchia, the digital director of Perfil Media in Argentina, wrote in the Buenos Aires Times in September..
“Imagine someone born 25 years ago in Argentina,” informal worker Franco Leonel told me. “For your entire life, you have seen nothing but misery and little chance to get ahead unless you emigrate. We want to be a normal country again.”