Most Americans have generally upbeat views about hard work. This gives the GOP a political advantage it would be foolish not to exploit.
Most Americans have generally upbeat views about hard work. This gives the GOP a political advantage it would be foolish not to exploit.
B y now, everyone knows that Republicans underperformed in the midterm elections, given President Biden’s low popularity and the fact that voters preferred the GOP’s approach to key issues such as inflation and the economy. Everyone also knows that this underperformance was due to a mix of subpar candidates and a number of anti-Trump votes that nearly matched the number of anti-Biden votes.
As Republican leaders assess these results behind closed doors and in advisory councils, they should wrestle with a fundamental issue that is getting less attention: their neglect in recent years of the optimism inherent to conservatism. When conservatives articulate a vision for the future that connects with the aspirations of ordinary people, they do well; when they try to beat progressives at grievance politics, they lose.
The best way to understand the nature of conservative optimism can be found in surveys that ask respondents to agree or disagree with the statement, “If people work hard, they almost always get what they want.” Eighty-two percent of Americans who self-identify as very conservative say that they agree. Only 29 percent of Americans who self-identify as very liberal say the same.
In the middle of that chasm are a majority of voters who clearly side with conservatives when it comes to the merits of good old-fashioned hard work. More than 60 percent of political moderates, 55 percent of blacks, and 63 percent of Hispanics agree that hard work helps people get what they want. When asked to choose whether hard work helps you get ahead or is no guarantee of success, 87 percent of conservative Americans and 70 percent of moderate Americans choose the former, while 57 percent of liberal Americans and 68 percent of “very liberal” Americans choose the latter. More than 80 percent of conservatives and two-thirds of moderates believe they have achieved the American Dream or are on their way to doing so, compared with 60 percent of liberals. Working-class blacks and Hispanics align more closely with conservatives’ optimism about the American Dream than with liberals’ relative pessimism.
The divide between conservatives and liberals on this issue is unique and not reflected in other important questions about American institutions. For instance, roughly half of liberals and conservatives believe in the trustworthiness of their fellow citizens, and slightly more than half of both groups are pessimistic about ordinary people’s ability to influence what happens in Washington, D.C. Majorities in both groups believe the economy favors powerful interests more than it provides all Americans a level playing field.
In turn, the uniqueness of the ideological divide seen in voter attitudes toward hard work matters, because those attitudes have real-world consequences in a way that other voter attitudes don’t.
A growing body of research shows that believing in the value of hard work and acting on that belief result in higher levels of perseverance, competitiveness, and achievement. Students whose teachers instill a belief that intelligence is not fixed — that it can change over time — perform better academically than their peers. Teens who believe they can improve their personalities enjoy better health and academic outcomes than those who think they “are who they are.” Happier workers are more productive than others, and it is pretty hard to be happy or productive if you believe that your effort doesn’t make a difference. One would think Republicans would want to be a party for just these kinds of people.
Other studies show that those who believe hardship is due to factors outside of one’s control favor greater redistribution and protective action by the national government. This has long explained progressives’ policy preferences. But it also sheds some light on support for the emphasis on nationalist policy goals, and the suddenly diminished emphasis on concepts such as federalism and personal responsibility, in Republicans’ public rhetoric as they slid into Trumpian grievance politics over the past six years.
Political conservatives’ inability or unwillingness to exploit their advantage on traditional American optimism about hard work may be their greatest failure in recent years. The disordered world of Trumpian sentiment and ideology — in its nationalist and reactionary variations — depends on surrendering human agency to victimology as one of its organizing concepts for policy. And the midterms show that voters are finally tiring of it. Since majorities of Americans of all stripes, except the far-left kind, believe that we live in a country that rewards the aspirations of ordinary people who are willing to work hard, it is baffling that political conservatives have run away from their advantage on the issue.
Going forward, instead of playing the victim card in the culture wars, conservatives should fight for a future in which more children are in schools that challenge them, more low-wage workers move into higher-paying sectors of the economy, more affordable housing is available to young families and workers, and more jobs exist for more people in our most innovative industries.
People who aim to work hard and achieve their dreams — that is, most Americans — wish to live in that future. It has been a long time since either party thought constructively about how to ensure that they get their wish. And that creates an opportunity for the GOP.