Republicans’ diminished electoral prospects elsewhere may have more to do with candidate quality than abortion policy.
Republicans’ diminished electoral prospects elsewhere may have more to do with candidate quality than abortion policy.
O hio Republican governor Mike DeWine leads his Democratic opponent Nan Whaley by 16 points — 49 percent to 33 percent — in the latest poll of the race. The same Emerson poll, conducted August 15–16, shows Ohio GOP Senate candidate J. D. Vance leading his Democratic opponent Tim Ryan by just three points — 45 percent to 42 percent.
What explains the 13-point differential between the Republicans’ leads in the gubernatorial and the Senate races? Many factors could be at play, but perhaps the most interesting thing about the poll is what doesn’t explain it — the issue of abortion.
Both DeWine and Vance are pro-life. DeWine is the governor who signed into law Ohio’s ban on abortion after a baby’s heartbeat is detectable about six weeks into pregnancy, with an exception for when the mother’s life or physical health is endangered but not when the pregnancy is the result of rape. If the abortion issue were a decisive factor for any given voter, it’s hard to see why that voter would cast a ballot against Vance and for DeWine.
Ever since the Dobbs decision overturned Roe v. Wade at the end of June, political observers have been trying to detect how much the issue might help Democrats in November, and there have been a few data points suggesting that Republican prospects have been diminished over the last couple months. The congressional GOP’s 2.3-point lead over Democrats on the generic ballot has turned into a 0.5-point lead for Democrats according to FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls. Republicans have not met expectations in a couple of congressional special elections. And at the beginning of August, Kansas voters (by 59 percent to 41 percent) rejected a referendum that would have held a right to abortion is not protected by the state constitution.
A number of Senate GOP candidates have seen lackluster polling as well. But the strength of pro-life GOP governors in those same battleground states suggests that the Senate GOP’s diminished electoral prospects may have more to do with candidate quality than abortion politics. It’s not just Ohio. In Georgia, Republican governor Brian Kemp signed into law a heartbeat act that bans abortion after six weeks of pregnancy except in cases of rape, incest, or when the life of the mother is endangered. But Kemp leads Democrat Stacey Abrams by 4.2 points in the RCP average of polls, while Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker (who has a lot of baggage) trails Democratic senator Raphael Warnock by 4.4 points.
In Iowa, GOP governor Kim Reynolds signed a heartbeat act into law in 2018. The latest Des Moines Register poll, conducted by the well-respected pollster J. Ann Selzer in July (a few weeks after the Dobbs decision), showed Reynolds leading her Democratic opponent by 17 points. The previous DMR poll conducted in February showed Reynolds leading by eight points.
In Florida earlier this year, Republican governor Ron DeSantis signed into law a ban on late abortions (those after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for the life of the mother and fatal fetal-health conditions). DeSantis led Democrat Charlie Crist by eight points in the most recent poll, and FiveThirtyEight gives DeSantis a 92 percent chance of winning reelection.
None of this is to say that abortion politics won’t have a significant impact in November, or that pro-life legislators should ignore the lessons of the Kansas referendum. If Democrats defy history and expectations to keep the House, the political reactions to Dobbs would be a crucial reason why. And while there’s no sign in the polling that abortion has upended any governor’s race, it would be foolish in August to write off the possibility that could happen in November. The polls could be off in either direction, and there could eventually be a convergence between the Senate and gubernatorial polling. But in the open-seat gubernatorial contest in a swing state where Republicans are struggling the most — Pennsylvania — they are beleaguered chiefly by a wackadoodle “Stop the Steal” candidate. If Doug Mastriano loses in Pennsylvania but Brian Kemp wins in Georgia, that would be another sign that candidate quality matters far more than abortion politics for Republican nominees.