How he stands up against novices, mavericks, and eccentrics from past elections.
The boss has written of Donald Trump’s many similarities to George Wallace in 1968. The useful-because-imprecise term “populist” certainly applies to both, and they share other traits: skill at demagoguery, the common touch (inborn in Wallace and not entirely feigned in Trump), ideological flexibility, a talent for using the media to their advantage. Racism was certainly a large part of Wallace’s appeal, but, like Trump, he also found considerable support among white working-class voters who felt ignored by both major parties. And while Wallace was just a third-party spoiler, it’s conceivable that Trump could end up winning no more states than he did (five).
Others have drawn parallels between Trump and Zachary Taylor, who ran successfully as a Whig in 1848. This analogy is based on their shared lack of intellectual gravitas (James Polk called Taylor, who succeeded him as president, “uneducated, exceedingly ignorant of public affairs, and, I should judge, of very ordinary capacity”), unpopularity among Mexicans (Taylor, an Army general, had recently defeated Mexico’s army in several battles), wealth (scion of a prominent Virginia family, Taylor owned plantations in several states), fame (Taylor for winning battles, Trump for firing people), and absence of political experience.
Taylor did not make much progress in uniting a fractious nation before dying a year and a half into his term, and Trump, if elected, seems unlikely to be much of a conciliator either.
Another tempting analogy is Ross Perot, who mounted third-party campaigns in 1992 and 1996. Businessmen tend to believe that their profession makes them experts on every subject (who do they think they are, journalists?), but since government does not work anything like a private business, the skills are not directly transferable. (Harry Truman once described the job of a president as “a glorified public relations man who spends his time flattering, kissing, and kicking people”). The folksy Perot made respectable showings in both campaigns with a protectionist, anti-Washington platform but was handicapped, in contrast to Trump, by quaintly sticking to schemes that at least sounded plausible.
Trump is surely sui generis, but here are some more previous presidential candidates, successful and unsuccessful, who managed to resemble him in various degrees:
Andrew Jackson, 1824(L), 1828 & 1832(W)
Similarities to Trump: Rough-hewn, imperious, disdainful of rules, a holder of grudges. Liked to move large groups of people across borders. A wealthy public figure who attracted devotion from the common folk. Had wacky ideas about economics; disdainful of foreigners; supporters tended to be boisterous.
Differences: Distrusted paper money; like Taylor, he was a genuine war hero instead of a military-school dropout.
Trump Similarity Index (0 to 10): 6.
Henry Clay, 1832(L), 1844(L)
Similarities to Trump: Favored high tariffs; opposed foreign wars; thought the most important job of government was to promote economic growth; known as a deal maker; hot-headed (fought at least one duel), impetuous, free with insults (he called Jackson “ignorant, passionate, hypocritical, corrupt, and easily swayed by the basest men around him”); wealthyish background; campaigns were characterized by gaffes and blunders.
Differences: Career politician. Supported liberation movements abroad (Latin America). Capable of eloquence; knew when to stop talking; genuinely aspired to save the nation. The deals he was famous for making did not generally involve his own businesses.
Trump Similarity Index: 5
Similarities to Trump: Successful New York businessman (founder of the New York Tribune) with a habit of making goofy statements; a pioneer of direct-to-the-voter campaigning (he was the first presidential candidate to tour the country making speeches). Tough on subordinates (“erratic, hard to work with, and almost impossible to please,” by one account). Ideologically fluid (he published articles by Karl Marx and bailed out Jefferson Davis; was a Republican running on the Democratic ticket against U.S. Grant).
Differences: Greeley’s campaign was devised and backed by the media (which in 1872 meant newspaper editors). Genuinely impassioned on slavery and many other causes, such as prohibition; capable of writing intelligibly at lengths greater than 140 characters. Humble background; built business from nothing. Earnest but far from charismatic.
Trump Similarity Index: 5
William Jennings Bryan, 1896, 1900 & 1908(L)
Similarities to Trump: Insurgent populist, at least to begin with. Bumptious as all get-out. Teetotaler, anti-imperialist. Opposed cheap immigrant labor. Proposed solving economic problems by expanding money supply. Gained support with his debate performances. Had an educational institution named after him.
Differences: Self-made; genuinely eloquent; deeply religious; generally considered to be honest. Popular enough in his party to gain nomination three times.
Trump Similarity Index: 4.
Similarities to Trump: Successful businessman; casual adulterer (he once held a press conference in his mistress’s apartment); hair often out of control. No government experience. Democrat until shortly before he ran for GOP nomination; a pro-business big-government Republican, dark-horse nominee of a divided party.
Differences: Anti-isolationist; thoughtful.
Trump Similarity Index: 3.
Similarities to Trump: Fire-breathing populist running against a wooden opponent. Notorious for nasty campaign rhetoric (“bloodsuckers of Wall Street”). Trailed in the polls throughout his campaign. Took things personally (he once threatened to punch a critic who gave a bad review to his daughter, a singer). Overcame bankruptcy. Name is alphabetically close to Trump, for what that’s worth.
Differences: Worked his way up through the political ranks; made reputation in Senate as diligent and detail-oriented. Lived in a modest home and had to ask Congress for money after presidency.
Trump Similarity Index: 4.
Similarities to Trump: Widely mocked before running; sometimes displayed shaky grasp of details; divorced; former Democrat; former TV-show host; glamour-girl wife.
Differences: Opposed Russian dictators; supported free markets; capable of self-deprecation; had government experience; knew when to listen to his aides.
Trump Similarity Index: 3.
Similarities to Trump: Inherited fortune; businessman with reputation for getting things done; not exactly a doctrinaire conservative.
Differences: Smart, gracious, earnest, calm, detail-oriented.
Trump Similarity Index: 2.
Barack Obama, 2008 & 2012(W)
Similarities to Trump: Tall, bench-warming high-school athlete; low-end Ivy Leaguer admitted as transfer student; wants to spend loads of money to solve everyone’s problems and award amnesty to many immigrants; uses government to harass opponents; frenemy of Hillary Clinton; holds inchoate ideas about foreign policy; elevated opinion of self as deal maker; inspires unfathomable worship from large body of fans; actual views are considerably to the left of the views he professes.
Differences: Sometimes remembers to think before opening his mouth.
Trump Similarity Index: 4.